Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$71.86-0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DK — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-23
Other Events. On July 23, 2026, Delek US Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.255 per share, to be paid on August 10, 2026, to shareholders as of record on August 3, 2026. The Company’s press release regarding the dividend is included as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Progress in this plan can boost cash flow and efficiency. It reflects management's focus on value creation.
Supportive ifAnnual cash flow improvements were at or above $220 million.
Worry ifCash flow improvements were below $200 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this target is key for Delek's money and operations.
Supportive ifManagement says cash flow is better at or above $220 million.
Worry ifCash flow improvements are below $200 million.
Why it matters: Growth in refining segment's adjusted EBITDA shows better margins and success. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifRefining segment adjusted EBITDA grows year over year in Q3.
Worry ifRefining segment adjusted EBITDA goes down year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: High crack spreads help refining margins and profits. This shows a good market.
Supportive ifCrack spreads reported above 136% year-over-year in Q3.
Worry ifCrack spreads drop below 100% year-over-year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$217 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $479 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,602 loss on $10,000 · 36.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Refining margins impact profits. A drop may show market weakness.
Worry ifRefining margins stay stable or improve from Q2.
Less concerning ifRefining margins drop a lot from Q2.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows Delek's strong cash flow. It also shows good operations.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was between $520 million and $560 million.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was less than $520 million.
Why it matters: Achieving this guidance is key for growth and investor confidence. Missing it could raise concerns.
Supportive ifThe company reports adjusted EBITDA within the range of $520M to $560M for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $520M. This may mean there are operational problems.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well Delek is managing costs and revenue. This is key for future outlook.
Watch forEarnings report shows a profit or positive surprise.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a loss or negative surprise.
Why it matters: A return to revenue growth would show the sector is improving. This could help Delek's performance.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth rises above 2%.
Worry if3-year revenue growth stays below 2%.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows trust in cash flow.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend of $0.255 per share is declared and paid.
Worry ifDividend is cut or suspended.