Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$141.07-4.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.21 → 13.04 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DKS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures managed near $1.6B in FY26 | Capital spending is managed around $1.6B, supporting expansion. | Improving | Capital expenditures exceed $1.7 billion or fall below $1.4 billion in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $382.726M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.6 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 3, 2026382,726,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a retail business with strong recent results in DICK’S core business and a more uncertain outlook after its acquisition of Foot Locker. The long-term thesis is intact, but management execution is volatile and the evidence is mixed.
The evidence describes DKS as cheap versus peers, while also showing a sizable premium versus peers in its valuation measure, so the relative valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in signal is tagged as justified with low fragility, suggesting the market is not assuming a fragile recovery.
Near term, DICK’S comparable sales have remained positive, but consolidated operating income guidance was lowered and Foot Locker is expected to incur segment losses. Capital spending is tracking its stated plan, while a recent earnings miss and a run of misses remain risks despite improving company momentum.
Over the next few quarters, a reversal in guidance would be evidence that recent pressure is easing; further downward revisions would weaken the thesis. Sector conditions also matter, with major consumer discretionary companies’ results and guidance serving as signals for the broader backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued strength in DICK’S core business offsetting Foot Locker’s challenges and the lower consolidated outlook. The evidence is mixed, with medium confidence and elevated risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| New loyalty programs and Foot Locker deal boost sales growth. |
| Intact |
| Comparable sales growth turns negative next year |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Ed Stack, Executive Chairman "We're proud of our second quarter performance in the DICK'S Business, where we delivered comp sales growth of 4.9% and gained market share despite growing pressure across portions of the athletic footwear and apparel marketplace.” “As a result, we are taking a more cautious view of the balance of the year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Operating income near $1.7B to $1.8B in FY26 | Profit margins remain solid with operating income near $1.7B to $1.8B. | Under Pressure | Operating income falls below $1.69 billion in FY26 | Operating margin: 7.89% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.69 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 3, 20267.889218 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $22.1B in FY26 | A primary condition in Dick's Sporting Goods's published investment case. The stated target is >= $22.1 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $22.1 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $5.587B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $22.1 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 3, 20265,586,815,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Ed Stack, Executive Chairman "We're proud of our second quarter performance in the DICK'S Business, where we delivered comp sales growth of 4.9% and gained market share despite growing pressure across portions of the athletic footwear and apparel marketplace.” “As a result, we are taking a more cautious view of the balance of the year.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$16.40 → $13.04 · observed estimates
$23.11B → $22.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $16.40 | $23,114,720,514 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $16.40 | $23,114,720,514 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $16.40 | $23,114,720,514 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $16.40 | $23,114,720,514 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $16.40 | $23,114,720,514 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $16.40 | $23,114,720,514 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $16.40 | $23,114,720,514 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $16.40 | $23,114,720,514 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-01 | $16.40 | $23,114,720,514 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-02 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-05 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-07 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-08 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-11 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $16.34 | $23,182,490,490 | 25 / 22 |
| 2026-08-13 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-15 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-16 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-17 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-18 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-19 | $16.41 | $23,092,618,840 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-20 | $16.40 | $23,102,450,880 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-21 | $16.39 | $23,098,625,880 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $16.39 | $23,122,685,409 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-23 | $16.39 | $23,122,685,409 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-24 | $16.39 | $23,122,685,409 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-25 | $16.36 | $23,117,318,852 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.43 | $22,895,091,085 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.43 | $22,895,091,085 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.43 | $22,895,091,085 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.56 | $22,666,858,641 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.56 | $22,666,858,641 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.56 | $22,666,858,641 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.47 | $22,666,854,096 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.47 | $22,666,854,096 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.47 | $22,666,854,096 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.47 | $22,666,854,096 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.47 | $22,665,946,539 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.47 | $22,665,946,539 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.47 | $22,665,946,539 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.47 | $22,665,946,539 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.47 | $22,665,946,539 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.38 | $22,648,426,915 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.38 | $22,648,426,915 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.38 | $22,648,426,915 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.38 | $22,648,426,915 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.38 | $22,648,426,915 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.38 | $22,648,426,915 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.38 | $22,648,426,915 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.38 | $22,648,426,915 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.38 | $22,648,426,915 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.28 | $22,628,168,560 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.28 | $22,628,168,560 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.28 | $22,628,168,560 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.28 | $22,628,168,560 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.28 | $22,628,168,560 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.28 | $22,628,168,560 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.28 | $22,628,168,560 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.28 | $22,628,168,560 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.28 | $22,628,168,560 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.28 | $22,628,168,560 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.28 | $22,628,168,560 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.28 | $22,628,168,560 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.26 | $22,628,168,560 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.21 | $22,619,281,604 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.21 | $22,619,281,604 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.21 | $22,619,281,604 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.21 | $22,619,281,604 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.21 | $22,619,281,604 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.21 | $22,621,964,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.21 | $22,621,964,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.21 | $22,621,964,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.11 | $22,600,364,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.11 | $22,600,364,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.11 | $22,600,364,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.11 | $22,600,364,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.11 | $22,600,364,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.11 | $22,600,364,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.11 | $22,600,364,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.11 | $22,600,364,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.11 | $22,600,364,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.11 | $22,600,364,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.11 | $22,600,364,212 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.06 | $22,603,811,218 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.06 | $22,603,811,218 | 10 / 17 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.07 | $22,612,384,643 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.08 | $22,616,951,950 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.08 | $22,616,951,950 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.08 | $22,616,951,950 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.08 | $22,616,951,950 | 10 / 18 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.08 | $22,621,190,025 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.08 | $22,621,190,025 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.08 | $22,621,190,025 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.08 | $22,621,190,025 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.08 | $22,621,190,025 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.08 | $22,621,190,025 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.08 | $22,621,190,025 | 11 / 18 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.04 | $22,621,194,192 | 11 / 18 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.