Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$139.15-0.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DKS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 44 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DKS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-25
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On August 25, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its results for the second fiscal quarter ended August 1, 2026 and certain other information that is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Success in this initiative shows DICK'S ability to integrate Foot Locker and grow its sales. It can drive overall company performance.
Supportive ifFast Break initiative sees double-digit sales growth in at least 100 stores.
Worry ifFast Break initiative fails to show double-digit growth in any stores.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows good finances and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly dividend of at least $1.25 per share.
Worry ifThe Board suspends or reduces the quarterly dividend.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it could signal a shift in the growth phase for the sector. This would impact how investors view Dick's Sporting Goods.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median for the sector in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median for the sector in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in spending can show how much management believes in growth. It affects future store openings.
Watch forManagement raises spending plans to over $1.6 billion for 2026.
Also watch forManagement lowers spending plans to below $1.6 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Spending this much may show plans for growth that could affect cash flow.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $1.6 billion.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is below $1.6 billion.
Why it matters: Having too much inventory can lead to overstocking. This may lower profits.
Worry ifInventory growth was above 52% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifInventory growth reported at or below 52% year over year.
Why it matters: High inventory levels may mean too much stock, which can hurt profits. Managing inventory is important for profits.
Worry ifDICK'S Business inventory levels increase by more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifDICK'S Business inventory levels increase by less than 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Steady guidance shows good cost control and profit. It gives investors confidence in finances.
Supportive ifOperating income guidance stays the same or goes up in the next update.
Worry ifOperating income guidance goes down in the next update.
Why it matters: Operating income margins show how well the company manages costs. This affects overall profits.
Worry ifOperating income margin for DICK'S Business falls below 10% in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating income margin for DICK'S Business stays above 11% in Q2.
Why it matters: This is the low end of the updated guidance. A miss could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ2 sales growth was below 2.5%.
Less concerning ifQ2 sales growth was above 2.5%.
Why it matters: Managing capital spending is crucial for future growth. It impacts cash flow and investment potential.
Watch forCapital spending drops by more than 10% from last year.
Also watch forCapital spending rises by more than 10% from last year.
Why it matters: High inventory levels may mean too much stock. This can hurt future profits and show how well the company runs.
Worry ifTotal inventory levels are over $5.6 billion in Q3.
Less concerning ifTotal inventory levels stay below $5.6 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Foot Locker's return to making money is important for the company. It shows if management's plans are working.
Supportive ifFoot Locker Business reports a profit in Q3.
Worry ifFoot Locker Business reports a loss greater than $40 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A downward change shows it is hard to keep profits with rising costs.
Worry ifOperating income is now less than $1.69 billion.
Less concerning ifOperating income is now more than $1.81 billion.
Why it matters: This will show if the company can maintain its growth amid market challenges. A strong performance could signal ongoing strength in the DICK'S Business.
Supportive ifDICK'S Business comparable sales growth exceeds 4.0% in Q3.
Worry ifComparable sales growth falls below 2.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: This will indicate if the Foot Locker acquisition is on track. Positive results could support the long-term growth strategy.
Watch forFoot Locker's sales growth is positive in Q3.
Also watch forFoot Locker's sales decline more in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$215 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $354 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,802 loss on $10,000 · 48.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.