Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-26 · fmp
Dolby (DLB)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$64.82-0.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.10 → 5.10 EPS · FY ending Sep 26, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DLB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities grows to at least $92.5M quarterly | A primary condition in Dolby's published investment case. The stated target is >= $92.5M cash from operations next quarter. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $54.8M next quarter | Cash from operations: $167.462M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $92.5M cash from operations next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 2026167,462,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-26 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DLB is a mature technology business with a multi-year view tied to broader adoption of Dolby Atmos and Vision. The thesis is intact, though the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and confidence is medium.
The valuation evidence describes DLB as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and a justified priced-in signal. That suggests the market is not pricing in especially high expectations, but the valuation evidence alone does not establish how well the business will execute.
Recent financial performance is strong relative to its industry, and the July earnings event was positive. However, revenue declined from $396 million in 2026-Q2 to $305 million in 2026-Q3, while management’s push to expand Atmos and Vision adoption has yet to show a consistent revenue trajectory; the CEO transition adds near-term uncertainty.
The multi-year view hinges on whether wider Atmos and Vision adoption and new content partnerships can support renewed revenue growth. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while Fed rate cuts or stabilization among large technology peers could ease near-term sector pressure.
Over the next one to three years, DLB’s thesis rests on converting adoption efforts into steadier business performance, with recent revenue weakness and leadership change as key risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Dividend per share maintains growth to at least $0.36 | Dividends keep growing, now $0.36 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.33 next quarter | Dividend per share: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.36 per share next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross profit improvement to sustain or exceed $350.9M quarterly | A primary condition in Dolby's published investment case. The stated target is >= $350.9M gross profit next quarter. | Intact | Gross profit falls below $303.5M next quarter | Gross profit: $264.676M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $350.9M gross profit next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 2026264,676,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above ~6% YoY | A primary condition in Dolby's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Revenue growth: -3.34% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 2026-3.343728 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.10 → $5.10 · observed estimates
$1.54B → $1.54B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.10 | $1,535,094,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 17, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.