Dolby (DLB)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$61.96+0.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DLB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DLB — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-27
CEO — Marc Whitten: The filing announces the appointment of an external candidate, Marc Whitten, as the new President and CEO, which is a significant leadership change but not a departure of a sitting executive.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows Dolby wants to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.36 per share confirmed on August 19, 2026.
Worry ifDividend payment did not happen as planned on August 19, 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Dolby is increasing cash from operations as planned. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows cash from operating activities up more than 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows cash from operating activities down or flat year over year.
Why it matters: Reaching this target would show strong demand for Dolby's technologies.
Supportive ifLicensing revenue reported at or above $335 million for Q4.
Worry ifLicensing revenue was below $335 million for Q4.
Why it matters: A steady rise in dividends shows strong cash flow and management's focus on value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase from $0.36 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend from the current $0.36 per share.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $269 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,310 loss on $10,000 · 33.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue is below this level, it shows Dolby has trouble growing its market.
Worry ifGuidance for total revenue below $362 million for Q4 2026.
Less concerning ifGuidance for total revenue at or above $362 million for Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Increased buybacks signal confidence in the company's value. It can support share price and investor sentiment.
Supportive ifShare buybacks exceed $70 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare buybacks are much lower than $70 million.
Why it matters: Better gross profit margins mean a company manages costs well and can set prices. This helps overall profits.
Supportive ifGross profit margins increase by more than 1% year over year in upcoming reports.
Worry ifGross profit margins decline or stay flat year over year.
Why it matters: If fewer people adopt the products, it may show trouble in growing Dolby's market.
Worry ifManagement says fewer people will use Dolby Atmos and Vision next quarter.
Less concerning ifManagement says more people are using Dolby Atmos and Vision next quarter.
Why it matters: Stable gross margins show good cost management. This helps understand profits during revenue growth.
Watch forGross margins remain around 88% on a GAAP basis.
Also watch forGross margins fall below 86% on a GAAP basis.
Why it matters: A drop in licensing revenue may show less use of Dolby technologies.
Worry ifLicensing revenue reported for Q3 is below $270 million.
Less concerning ifLicensing revenue reported for Q3 is above $300 million.
Why it matters: This buyback shows management's confidence in the stock. If many shares are bought back, it shows strong financial health. If no shares are bought back, it may show caution.
Supportive ifA press release or report shows many shares bought back under the new plan.
Worry ifNo shares are bought back under the new plan.
Why it matters: Falling below this level would show ongoing problems for Dolby's growth.
Worry ifQ4 total revenue was less than $362 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 total revenue was more than $392 million.
Why it matters: A drop would show possible cost issues and hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margins reported below 87%.
Less concerning ifGross margins reported at or above 88%.
Why it matters: More buybacks would show good capital use and trust in the business.
Supportive ifTotal stock buybacks exceed $427 million.
Worry ifNo significant buybacks announced in the next quarter.