Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-09-30 · fmp
DLH Holdings Corp (DLHC)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.63-1.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DLHC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow accelerates beyond $3.8 million in H2 2026 | DLH aims to grow free cash flow above $3.8 million in H2 2026. | Intact | free cash flow does not increase above $3.8 million in H2 2026 | Free cash flow: $4.203M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >3.8 million USD in free cash flow. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 29, 20264,203,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 9, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making turnaround case, not a proven durable growth story. The thesis is in a watch state, with recent results weak and momentum worsening.
DLHC is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence does not show that the market expects a strong recovery, and the low fragility reading does not remove the business risks.
Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated after the latest miss, while revenue and operating income weakened from the first to the second quarter of 2026. Management has made moderate progress on debt reduction and cash generation, but revenue, margins, and operating leverage show limited progress so far; CEO transitions add uncertainty.
The multi-year view hinges on whether management can stabilize organic growth, align costs with revenue, and keep reducing debt while generating cash. In the near term, another guidance cut would be a negative signal; continued strength or weakness among the named Industrials bellwethers could also affect the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, DLHC’s thesis depends on an operating recovery that the recent results have not yet shown, alongside continued balance-sheet progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in DLH Holdings Corp's published investment case. The stated target is Limit revenue decline to less than 25% and operating income near zero in 2026-Q2. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls more than 25% and operating income drops below -$0.06 million in 2026-Q2 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes near $28 million in fiscal 2025 | The company plans to manage revenue near $28 million in 2025. | Broken | revenue falls below $28 million in FY 2025 | Revenue: $44.225M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~28 million USD total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 29, 202644,225,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.41 → $-0.69 · observed estimates
$0.21B → $0.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.41 | $215,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.69 | $175,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.