DLH Holdings Corp (DLHC)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.07-1.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DLHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -72.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -29.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DLHC — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-25
CEO — Zachary C. Parker: The CEO resigned from his executive position, representing a loss of the top executive, despite remaining on the board and providing consulting services.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into cash flow and revenue trends.
Watch forEarnings report shows improved cash flow and revenue growth.
Also watch forEarnings report shows continued cash flow and revenue decline.
Why it matters: Stable margins show good cost management during tough revenue times. It shows efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin remains at or above 7.6% in Q4.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 7.6%. This shows worse cost management.
Why it matters: If revenue stabilizes or grows, it shows the company is handling its recent problems.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue does not decline from last year. This shows recovery from old programs.
Worry ifQ4 revenue declines from last year. This confirms that the business still faces challenges.
Why it matters: This signals a successful transition from legacy programs to new growth areas. It shows if management's strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue comes from technology solutions only. This shows a successful change.
Worry ifQ4 revenue still includes old programs. This means the change is not finished.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $414 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,805 loss on $10,000 · 38.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash from operations shows improved efficiency. This is key to fixing negative trends.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above -$4.77 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations reported worse than -$4.77 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue trends will show if DLH can recover from recent declines. A drop signals ongoing issues.
Worry ifQ4 revenue remains below $44.2 million, continuing the decline from Q3.
Less concerning ifQ4 revenue is over $44.2 million. This shows a recovery.
Why it matters: Backlog trends show future revenue potential. They also show demand for services.
Supportive ifBacklog is over $408.5 million. This shows demand is recovering.
Worry ifBacklog is going down. This shows ongoing challenges in getting contracts.
Why it matters: This report will show if DLH can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forThe earnings report shows smaller losses. It may also show a return to making money.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing losses. There is no sign of improvement in finances.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show revenue trends and how well the company is doing. They are important to see how the new leaders are affecting the company.
Watch forEarnings show higher revenue and adjusted EBITDA than in Q2 2026.
Also watch forEarnings show a drop in revenue and adjusted EBITDA compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Steady revenue is important after a leadership change. It shows how well the new CEO is doing and how healthy the company is.
Supportive ifRevenue stabilizes or grows in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifRevenue continues to decline in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Accelerating cash flow is key for reducing debt and improving financial health. It shows the company can manage its costs and generate cash.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $3.8 million in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains below $3.8 million in the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it may help DLH's performance. This could signal a better market environment.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Management aims to turn 50-55% of EBITDA into cash. This helps reduce debt and keeps finances stable.
Worry ifEBITDA conversion to debt reduction exceeds 55% for the fiscal year.
Less concerning ifEBITDA conversion to debt reduction falls below 50% for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Reducing debt faster will help financial health. It will also boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifDebt decreases by more than $4 million in H2 2026.
Worry ifDebt remains flat or increases, indicating cash flow issues.