Duluth Holdings Inc (DLTH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.52+1.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Duluth Holdings beat EPS forecasts in Q1 2026 by 48.7%. The company expects $540M to $560M revenue in fiscal 2026. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $28M-$32M. Free cash flow is forecasted at $16M for 2026.
The company is still loss-making with negative EPS expected in 2026. Revenue fell 4% year-over-year in Q1 2026. Analysts lowered EPS estimates recently. Litigation risks persist.
The market expects about 15% revenue growth. Our fair value is near $19, reflecting cautious optimism. We see risk from ongoing losses and mixed execution.
Breaks if: Fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA falls below $28 million
Increase fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $28 million to $32 million, up from prior $26 million to $30 million.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation. DLTH is currently navigating a volatile management phase and is loss-making, but recent earnings have shown some improvement, indicating potential for recovery.
The market seems to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic about DLTH's near-term performance. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, but the company still faces headwinds.
Management has affirmed its fiscal 2026 net sales guidance, but actual revenues have shown a decline year-over-year. The company has improved its Adjusted EBITDA, which may help stabilize its financial outlook in the near term.
The future of DLTH hinges on its ability to maintain guidance without cuts, the impact of inflation on consumer spending, and performance trends from sector leaders like TJX and ROST. These factors will be critical in shaping investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 38.3 points (from 41.7 to 80.0) after fresh earnings.
Company quality rose by 8.8 points (from 35.6 to 44.4).
Composite insight rose by 11.4 points (from 9.0 to 20.4) after fresh earnings.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised from $26 million-$30 million to $28 million-$32 million for fiscal 2026. Actual Adjusted EBITDA improved significantly, reaching $27.0 million in 2026-Q3 compared to $12.0 million in 2025-Q3, indicating management is delivering on this priority.
“Raising previously issued fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $28 million to $32 million”
“Raising previously issued fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $28 million to $32 million”
“Raising previously issued fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $28 million to $32 million”
Breaks if: Fiscal 2026 capital expenditures exceed $15 million
Maintain fiscal 2026 capital expenditures guidance at approximately $12 million, inclusive of software hosting implementation costs.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently affirmed fiscal 2026 capital expenditures guidance at approximately $12 million. No detailed quarterly capex spending data is provided, so delivery assessment is limited but consistent reaffirmation indicates stable capital allocation.
“Affirming capital expenditures, inclusive of software hosting implementation costs, of approximately $12 million”
“Affirming capital expenditures, inclusive of software hosting implementation costs, of approximately $12 million”
“Affirming capital expenditures, inclusive of software hosting implementation costs, of approximately $12 million”
Breaks if: Fiscal 2026 free cash flow falls below $16 million
Maintain fiscal 2026 capital expenditures guidance at approximately $12 million, inclusive of software hosting implementation costs.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently affirmed fiscal 2026 capital expenditures guidance at approximately $12 million. No detailed quarterly capex spending data is provided, so delivery assessment is limited but consistent reaffirmation indicates stable capital allocation.
“Affirming capital expenditures, inclusive of software hosting implementation costs, of approximately $12 million”
“Affirming capital expenditures, inclusive of software hosting implementation costs, of approximately $12 million”
“Affirming capital expenditures, inclusive of software hosting implementation costs, of approximately $12 million”
Increase fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $28 million to $32 million, up from prior $26 million to $30 million.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised from $26 million-$30 million to $28 million-$32 million for fiscal 2026. Actual Adjusted EBITDA improved significantly, reaching $27.0 million in 2026-Q3 compared to $12.0 million in 2025-Q3, indicating management is delivering on this priority.
“Raising previously issued fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $28 million to $32 million”
Breaks if: Fiscal 2026 revenue falls below $540 million
Maintain previously issued fiscal 2026 net sales guidance range of $540 million to $560 million.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently affirmed the fiscal 2026 net sales guidance range of $540 million to $560 million. Actual quarterly revenues show some decline year-over-year, with $121.4 million in 2026-Q3 down from $131.7 million in 2025-Q3, indicating mixed delivery against the revenue guidance.
“Affirming previously issued fiscal 2026 net sales guidance range of $540 million to $560 million”
“Affirming previously issued fiscal 2026 net sales guidance range of $540 million to $560 million”
“Affirming previously issued fiscal 2026 net sales guidance range of $540 million to $560 million”
In the next 1-3 years, DLTH's performance will depend on its management execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.
Management rose by 9.1 points (from 25.2 to 34.3) after fresh earnings.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable' after fresh earnings.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the affirmation of fiscal 2026 net sales guidance. Additionally, the company raised its fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. There are no current threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
“Raising previously issued fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $28 million to $32 million”
“Raising previously issued fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $28 million to $32 million”