Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-01 · fmp
Duluth Holdings Inc (DLTH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.08-7.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DLTH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Raise fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to $28M-$32M | Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to $28M-$32M. | Intact | Fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA falls below $28 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fiscal 2026 Outlook For Fiscal 2026, the Company is: ● Affirming previously issued fiscal 2026 net sales guidance range of $540 million to $560 million ● Raising previously issued fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA 1 guidance to $38 million to $42 million compared to the previous guidance of $28 million to $32 million, including the impact of tariff refunds ● Affirming capital expenditures, inclusive of software hosting implementation costs, of approximately $12 million 1 See Reconciliation of Forecasted Net Income to Forecasted EBITDA and Forecasted EBITDA to Forecasted Adjusted EBITDA in the accompanying financial tables.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-01 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk operating recovery story, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: recent signals improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but the business remains loss-making and recent performance trails its industry cohort.
The valuation model labels expectations as justified, with no fragility flags, while showing DLTH at a premium to peers. Its expectations gap is negative, meaning the evidence points to a gap between current expectations and the model’s view; confidence in that reading is medium.
Near term, adjusted EBITDA has improved: it reached $27.0 million in 2026-Q3 versus $12.0 million a year earlier, and management raised its fiscal 2026 guidance range. Sales remain a concern, with 2026-Q3 revenue down year over year, while guidance has been reaffirmed; a guidance cut on the next call is a key risk. A recent earnings beat supports the improving signal, but the litigation filing and elevated overall risk temper it.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether DLTH can sustain stronger profitability while stabilizing sales and meeting its fiscal 2026 guidance. Consumer-sector conditions matter too: continued strength from TJX, ROST, and BURL would support the backdrop, while weaker results or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.
For the 1-to-3-year view, DLTH shows an early improvement in profitability, but falling sales, losses, and elevated risk keep the thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Keep fiscal 2026 capital expenditures near $12 million | A supporting condition in Duluth Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$12 million. | Intact | Fiscal 2026 capital expenditures exceed $15 million | Capital expenditures: $716,000 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$12 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 4, 2026716,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fiscal 2026 Outlook For Fiscal 2026, the Company is: ● Affirming previously issued fiscal 2026 net sales guidance range of $540 million to $560 million ● Raising previously issued fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA 1 guidance to $38 million to $42 million compared to the previous guidance of $28 million to $32 million, including the impact of tariff refunds ● Affirming capital expenditures, inclusive of software hosting implementation costs, of approximately $12 million 1 See Reconciliation of Forecasted Net Income to Forecasted EBITDA and Forecasted EBITDA to Forecasted Adjusted EBITDA in the accompanying financial tables.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Generate free cash flow of at least $16 million in fiscal 2026 | Free cash flow is forecasted at $16M for 2026. | Intact | Fiscal 2026 free cash flow falls below $16 million | Free cash flow: $28.157M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $16 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 4, 202628,157,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fiscal 2026 Outlook For Fiscal 2026, the Company is: ● Affirming previously issued fiscal 2026 net sales guidance range of $540 million to $560 million ● Raising previously issued fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA 1 guidance to $38 million to $42 million compared to the previous guidance of $28 million to $32 million, including the impact of tariff refunds ● Affirming capital expenditures, inclusive of software hosting implementation costs, of approximately $12 million 1 See Reconciliation of Forecasted Net Income to Forecasted EBITDA and Forecasted EBITDA to Forecasted Adjusted EBITDA in the accompanying financial tables.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain fiscal 2026 net sales between $540M and $560M | A primary condition in Duluth Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $540 million and <= $560 million. | Intact | Fiscal 2026 revenue falls below $540 million | Revenue: $121.389M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $540 million and <= $560 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 4, 2026121,389,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Fiscal 2026 Outlook For Fiscal 2026, the Company is: ● Affirming previously issued fiscal 2026 net sales guidance range of $540 million to $560 million ● Raising previously issued fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA 1 guidance to $38 million to $42 million compared to the previous guidance of $28 million to $32 million, including the impact of tariff refunds ● Affirming capital expenditures, inclusive of software hosting implementation costs, of approximately $12 million 1 See Reconciliation of Forecasted Net Income to Forecasted EBITDA and Forecasted EBITDA to Forecasted Adjusted EBITDA in the accompanying financial tables.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.04 → $-0.03 · observed estimates
$0.57B → $0.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.04 | $566,433,550 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.03 | $563,833,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 15, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.