Duluth Holdings Inc (DLTH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.52+1.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DLTH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -74.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 93.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DLTH — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-03
Regulation FD Disclosure. On September 3, 2026, the Company issued an Investor Presentation. A copy of the Investor Presentation is attached as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information reported in Items 2.02 and 7.01 of this Form 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is not deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Further, the information reported in Items 2.02 a…
Why it matters: A bigger drop in sales shows problems with customer demand and market conditions.
Worry ifQ3 net sales decline worse than 7.8% compared to $131.7 million last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales decline less than 7.8% or show growth year over year.
Why it matters: Web traffic and conversion rates impact direct sales. They also affect total revenue.
Worry ifDirect-to-consumer net sales rise by at least 5% from the last quarter.
Less concerning ifDirect-to-consumer net sales fall by more than 5% from the last quarter.
Why it matters: The court case outcome could affect financial health and investor feelings. Watch for updates.
Worry ifThe court case ends well for Duluth Holdings.
Less concerning ifThe court case leads to a big financial penalty or bad ruling.
Why it matters: Confirming the sales guidance shows the company is on track for growth. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 net sales reach at least $540 million by the end of Q2.
Worry ifNet sales fall below $540 million by the end of Q2.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$182 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $597 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,024 loss on $10,000 · 50.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable inventory levels help improve profits and reduce costs. It shows better inventory control.
Supportive ifInventory levels stabilize or decrease by less than 10% year over year.
Worry ifInventory levels increase by more than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable or falling inventory levels show good inventory management. This can help profits and cash flow.
Supportive ifInventory levels are down 24.8% compared to last year.
Worry ifInventory levels go up or do not improve.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this sales number shows progress toward the yearly sales goal. It shows customer demand and how well the company operates.
Supportive ifQ2 net sales reported at or above $98.6 million.
Worry ifQ2 net sales fall below $98.6 million.
Why it matters: Stable or lower inventory levels show better management. This can help cash flow and profits.
Supportive ifInventory levels drop or stabilize at $43.7 million or less.
Worry ifInventory levels go up to over $43.7 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show sales and profit trends, affecting future guidance.
Watch forEarnings results show revenue growth and better profits compared to last quarter.
Also watch forEarnings results show lower revenue and profits compared to last quarter.
Why it matters: Net sales performance will indicate if the company can recover from recent declines. It is key for future growth.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net sales decrease year over year by more than 4%.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net sales increase year over year.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health and improvements. It shows the company's recovery efforts.
Supportive ifNet loss reported below $10 million.
Worry ifNet loss remains at or exceeds $10 million.
Why it matters: Retail sales growth shows that customers want products and marketing is working.
Supportive ifRetail store net sales increase by more than 3.3% compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifRetail store net sales decline or grow less than 3.3% compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: A bigger drop shows good inventory management and better cash flow.
Supportive ifInventory drop is over 15.5% compared to last year.
Worry ifInventory drop is less than 15.5% or inventory goes up.
Why it matters: Higher EBITDA guidance means the company will make more money and work better.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance raised to at least $32 million for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance stays at or below $28 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Raising EBITDA guidance shows better profits and efficiency. This can help investor trust.
Supportive ifDuluth raises its fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. It is now between $28 million and $32 million.
Worry ifDuluth lowers its fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance. It is now below $26 million.