Duluth Holdings Inc (DLTH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.08-7.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DLTH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -65.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 21.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 87.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
DLTH — litigation filed
Dated 2026-09-03
Regulation FD Disclosure. On September 3, 2026, the Company issued an Investor Presentation. A copy of the Investor Presentation is attached as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated by reference herein. The information reported in Items 2.02 and 7.01 of this Form 8-K, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is not deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Further, the information reported in Items 2.02 a…
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin was 59.6% without tariff refunds, up 4.9 points year over year. More gains would show that lower discounts and sourcing cuts are helping.
Supportive ifAt the December 15 results, gross margin is above 59.6%, without tariff refunds.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 59.6%, excluding tariff refunds. The company reports more discounting or higher product costs.
Why it matters: Sales fell 7.8% in Q2 as web and store traffic weakened. Full-year sales within the range would show the plan is holding.
Watch forFY2026 net sales are reported between $540M and $560M.
Also watch forFY2026 net sales fall below $540M or management cuts the range before year-end.
Why it matters: The raised profit range includes $16.3M in tariff refunds. Results without that boost will show how much profit came from the core business.
Watch forFY2026 adjusted EBITDA is reported at $38M–$42M. Tariff refunds are shown separately.
Also watch forFY2026 adjusted EBITDA falls below $38M, or the range is cut.
Why it matters: Inventory was down 15.5% in Q2, but management also named inventory control as a key priority. A rise could weaken cash gains.
Watch forAt the next results, inventory remains lower year over year and does not rise faster than sales.
Also watch forInventory turns rise year over year as sales keep falling. This reverses the reported 15.5% drop.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $508 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,983 loss on $10,000 · 39.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.