Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Deluxe Corporation (DLX)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$27.70+18.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.05 → 4.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DLX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EPS between $3.60 and $4.00 in 2026 | Adjusted EPS is expected to grow 9% to 21%. | Intact | Adjusted EPS falls below 3.3 USD in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DLX is a value-oriented business with acquisition-driven growth, rather than a clear-cut durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance holding in the top half of its industry, but management volatility and elevated risk make execution important.
The valuation is cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap suggests the market’s assumptions are below the model’s view. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low signs of concentrated fragility; valuation has also declined recently, though the evidence does not explain why.
Near term, management has reaffirmed its full-year free cash flow goal after first-half cash flow grew, and the Celero acquisition is complete with integration underway. The acquisition is expected to make Payments and Data 57% of pro forma 2026 revenue, while recent revenue guidance was raised to reflect its contribution. Risks include the headwind from the sector backdrop and the credibility cost if management reverses its raised guidance.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on integrating Celero, sustaining cash generation, and delivering against the raised revenue outlook. Near-term signals from sector peers could matter: continued earnings strength and higher guidance would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
DLX’s multi-year view has support from cash generation, a completed acquisition, and a valuation that is cheap versus peers, but management execution and sector conditions remain key uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Deluxe aims for $200 million free cash flow in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below 175 million USD in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $85.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=200 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202685,900,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Outlook The Company updated its guidance for full year 2026 as follows: • Revenue of $2.13 to $2.15 billion • Adjusted EBITDA of $470 to $480 million • Adjusted diluted EPS of $3.80 to $4.00 • Free cash flow of approximately $200 million This guidance remains subject to, among other things, prevailing macroeconomic conditions, global instability, including tariffs, labor supply challenges, and inflation, as well as the impact of other potential changes to the company's portfolio.” ““Strong continuing free cash flows drove our sustaining debt reduction trajectory, positioning our balance sheet to support future growth.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Payments and Data segments over 50% of total revenue | The company is shifting sales to faster-growing Payments and Data segments. | Intact | Payments and Data revenue share stays below 50% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Revenue across our combined Payments and Data businesses expanded by over 21%, as the addition of Celero mid-quarter further accelerated our growth and mix shift progress," said Barry McCarthy, President and CEO of Deluxe.” ““We achieved two long-term strategic milestones, reaching our 3x leverage target and shifting mix towards Payments and Data that now together represent more than 50% of revenue."” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue near $2 billion in 2026 | Revenue is guided near $2 billion, stable versus 2025. | Intact | Revenue falls below 1.985 billion USD in FY26 | Revenue: $499.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 1985 to 2050 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026499,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.11 → $4.05 · observed estimates
$2.04B → $2.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.11 | $2,097,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.11 | $2,097,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.11 | $2,097,466,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.11 | $2,037,533,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.08 | $2,207,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.05 | $2,208,550,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.