Deluxe Corporation (DLX)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$27.70+18.27%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DLX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 3.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DLX — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-31
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 31, 2026, Deluxe Corporation (the “Company”) and certain subsidiaries of the Company party thereto, as guarantors, entered into a Refinancing Facility Agreement No. 2 effecting a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with certain financial institutions party thereto, as lenders, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, amending the Company’s existing credit agreement. The Credit Agreement provid…
Why it matters: Deluxe says Celero can add more than $15 million in cost savings. The next results can show whether those savings are taking hold.
Supportive ifManagement says Celero can save more than $15 million. Reported results show those savings.
Worry ifManagement cuts or delays its goal of more than $15 million in savings. Or, added integration costs offset the savings.
Why it matters: Free cash flow rose 64.9% in the first half. Deluxe kept its full-year goal near $200 million.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is about $200 million or higher.
Worry ifFull-year free cash flow falls below $200 million, or management cuts its goal.
Why it matters: Payments and Data grew 9.7% in Q2, while total reported revenue fell 4.2%. Continued growth can show the mix shift is working.
Supportive ifPayments and Data revenue grows year over year, and their share of total revenue rises above 52%.
Worry ifPayments and Data revenue falls year over year, or its share of total revenue drops below 52%.
Why it matters: The new outlook includes Celero. Q3 results will test whether revenue and earnings track those full-year ranges.
Watch forManagement keeps its 2026 revenue range at $2.095–$2.12 billion and adjusted EBITDA range at $455–$475 million. Q3 results stay on pace for both ranges.
Also watch forManagement cuts either range. Or, Q3 revenue or adjusted EBITDA falls below the pace needed to meet the low end.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $302 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,107 loss on $10,000 · 31.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.