Deluxe Corporation (DLX)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.29-0.45%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DLX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -51.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DLX — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-31
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 31, 2026, Deluxe Corporation (the “Company”) and certain subsidiaries of the Company party thereto, as guarantors, entered into a Refinancing Facility Agreement No. 2 effecting a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with certain financial institutions party thereto, as lenders, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, amending the Company’s existing credit agreement. The Credit Agreement provid…
Why it matters: Closing this deal will shift Deluxe's revenue more toward Payments and Data. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifThe deal will close in Q3 2026 as planned. There are no regulatory delays.
Worry ifThe deal is delayed or blocked by regulatory problems.
Why it matters: Successful integration will help Deluxe grow its Payments and Data segments. This is key to their strategy.
Supportive ifManagement says they saved more than $15 million from the Celero deal.
Worry ifThere are reports of delays or not meeting synergy goals.
Why it matters: This will show if the company can maintain growth after a mixed Q1. Weak growth could signal trouble.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 1% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong cash flow. It helps future growth plans.
Supportive ifManagement reports free cash flow of about $200 million for 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow drops below $150 million, showing cash flow problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$175 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $299 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,025 loss on $10,000 · 30.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This deal could greatly increase money from Payments and Data segments.
Supportive ifThe company says the Celero Commerce deal is now closed.
Worry ifThe Celero Commerce deal is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: The guidance will show if the company can maintain its growth after Q1 results.
Watch forManagement confirms Q2 revenue guidance of $1.985 to $2.050 billion.
Also watch forManagement cuts Q2 revenue guidance to less than $1.985 billion.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company combines with Celero and grows.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows adjusted EPS above $1.05.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows adjusted EPS below $1.05.
Why it matters: This range shows the company's earnings growth and how well it operates.
Watch forAdjusted EPS reported at or above $3.60 for 2026.
Also watch forAdjusted EPS reported below $3.60 for 2026.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector shows renewed growth, it could benefit Deluxe's performance. This could signal a positive trend for the company.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to nearly 10% each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth slows down to below 5% each year.
Why it matters: Continued strong growth in these segments is crucial for Deluxe's strategic shift.
Supportive ifYear-to-date growth in Payments and Data segments exceeds 11%.
Worry ifGrowth in Payments and Data segments falls below 9%.
Why it matters: An update may show how the deal affects earnings growth.
Watch forManagement raises EPS guidance above $4.00 after the deal.
Also watch forManagement lowers EPS guidance below $3.60 after the deal.
Why it matters: This shows the company is changing its revenue to focus on Payments and Data.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 2.5% year over year, confirming the strategic shift.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 1%, indicating challenges in the revenue mix shift.
Why it matters: New guidance will reflect the impact of the Celero acquisition on revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement expects 2026 revenue to be more than $2.050 billion.
Worry ifRevenue guidance stays the same or drops below $1.985 billion.