Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Digimarc Corp. (DMRC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.72+1.87%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DMRC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful leadership transition with new CEO Paul Carreiro | The new CEO, Paul Carreiro, brings fresh leadership to guide the company. | Improving | no operational improvements or worsening execution by end of 2026 | Qualitative: 30x pipeline growth, Q2 beat, $18.2M raise New CEO appointed; Secure Gift Card pipeline grew 30x; Q2 2026 earnings beat estimates; $18.2M capital raised. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small technology business with a speculative, execution-dependent multi-year view, rather than an established durable compounder. The thesis state is insufficient because the evidence does not provide enough recent financial history to assess progress.
The snapshot provides no valuation or expectations data, so it is not possible to say whether DMRC is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers, or what the market already assumes. The available evidence points to operating uncertainty, not a clear expectations gap.
Near term, revenue pressure and a run of earnings misses leave results at elevated risk; the next-quarter miss probability is assessed at 59%. In 2026-Q2, total revenue fell year over year as subscription revenue declined, while service revenue grew slightly and non-GAAP operating expenses decreased. Pipeline signs in Retail and CPG are early, and the effects of two terminated customer projects remain unclear.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on whether new and existing contracts can restore subscription and service revenue, and whether cost discipline can continue without weakening operations. Near-term outcomes also depend on project disruption and the technology-sector backdrop: rate cuts or stabilizing sector peers could help, while materially slower GDP growth could weigh more heavily on technology businesses.
DMRC’s multi-year view is uncertain, with early signs of pipeline activity and cost control not yet offsetting declining revenue and repeated earnings misses. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Digimarc Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is stabilize revenue near $29 million in FY26. |
| Broken |
| revenue falls below $25 million in FY26 |
Revenue: $7.388M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: stabilize revenue near $29 million in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 20267,388,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce losses and improve earnings per share | A primary condition in Digimarc Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows from -$0.33 in FY26 to less negative or break-even by FY27. | Broken | EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.35 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $-0.54 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows from -$0.33 in FY26 to less negative or break-even by FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 2026-0.54 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.24 → $-1.30 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.34 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.34 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.34 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.34 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.34 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.34 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.34 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.34 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.34 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.34 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.24 | $31,503,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.30 | $29,334,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.