Digimarc Corp. (DMRC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.31-2.93%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DMRC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers
DMRC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-13
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 13, 2026, Digimarc Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 is the investor presentation from the Company’s conference call on August 13, 2026 announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, as posted on the Company’s website at https:/…
Why it matters: The company issued debt to raise $17.5 million. This could affect financial stability.
Watch forPositive use of funds from the debt issuance leading to new contracts or revenue growth.
Also watch forBad financial numbers or trouble paying the new debt.
Why it matters: These updates will show how ending projects will affect future income.
Worry ifManagement has a clear plan to recover lost income from stopped projects.
Less concerning ifIf there is no recovery plan or if more projects are canceled.
Why it matters: The termination of two projects may affect revenue. This will show how well management handles challenges.
Worry ifQ2 revenue declines more than 10% year over year due to project terminations.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue remains stable or grows year over year despite project terminations.
Why it matters: Good cost management can help make more money and support long-term success.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating expenses go down in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating expenses go up in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$376 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $848 loss on $10,000 · 8.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,768 loss on $10,000 · 67.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company terminated two projects, which could impact future revenue. Updates will show how management handles this change.
Worry ifManagement has a clear plan. They want to restructure and keep customer relationships.
Less concerning ifNo updates or a lack of clarity on how to address the project terminations.
Why it matters: How well this offering does can affect the company's money and growth plans.
Watch forThe company raises the full $17.5 million. There are no major concerns about dilution.
Also watch forThe offering does not attract enough interest, leading to less money raised.
Why it matters: The stock offering may help fund growth and keep operations steady.
Watch forThe next earnings call will share details on money raised and its use.
Also watch forNo news or bad feedback on how the stock offering affects operations.
Why it matters: Canceled projects may hurt revenue and change focus.
Worry ifManagement says canceled projects will affect revenue in the next earnings call.
Less concerning ifNo revenue loss is reported, and the project pipeline stays stable.
Why it matters: How well the new CEO performs will affect the company's plans and actions.
Watch forWatch for good news or improved financial results after the leadership change.
Also watch forWatch for ongoing problems in performance or bad updates after the transition.
Why it matters: This call will show how Carreiro plans to lead Digimarc and address challenges.
Watch forThe call had positive comments about growth plans and managing projects.
Also watch forThere was negative feedback on ending projects or unclear plans.
Why it matters: Subscription revenue fell a lot because contracts ended. Growth is very important.
Supportive ifSubscription revenue increases to $4 million or more in the next quarter.
Worry ifSubscription revenue may keep falling below $3.5 million next quarter.
Why it matters: Lower operating expenses show better cost management. This is key for making money.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating costs fall below $8 million next quarter.
Worry ifOperating costs go above $9 million next quarter.
Why it matters: The company is changing after losing important contracts. This impacts money and work.
Worry ifGood changes can bring new contracts or steady income.
Less concerning ifMore project terminations or big revenue drops happen.