Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (DNA)
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.950.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue near $105.65M in 2026: FY26 rev est $82.6M vs $105M target.
Ginkgo Bioworks is a leader in synthetic biology with a unique platform. It aims to manage cash burn within $125M-$150M in 2026. The company completed the Tower Biosecurity acquisition to boost growth. Revenue is expected near $105.65M in 2026, showing some stability.
Ginkgo is loss-making with fragile quality and elevated risk. Analysts expect revenue to decline about 16% next year. The company missed earnings recently and has a negative free cash flow yield. Cash burn remains high and growth uncertain.
The market prices in about -16% revenue growth and a continued loss-making profile. Our fair value near $32 aligns with this cautious outlook. We differ by watching for stabilization in cash burn and revenue as a potential catalyst.
Breaks if: cash burn exceeds $150M in FY26
Breaks if: revenue falls below $100M in FY26
Breaks if: Acquisition fails to integrate or deliver expected benefits by end 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on stabilizing operations and managing cash burn. The current thesis state indicates a cautious outlook due to recent earnings misses and elevated risk factors.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of execution quality, reflecting a cheap valuation compared to peers. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that investors may be anticipating further challenges ahead.
Management is focused on controlling cash burn and scaling operations, which may help stabilize fundamentals over the multi-year horizon. However, the company has a high probability of missing earnings expectations, which could impact sentiment.
The future trajectory hinges on management's ability to execute on its priorities, particularly in cash management and scaling operations. Additionally, broader sector performance and economic indicators, such as job reports, will play a critical role in shaping investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company missed revenue expectations in Q2 2026. This miss impacts the Biosecurity revenue target of at least $40 million for 2025.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
The outlook for DNA is mixed, with potential for improvement if management can navigate current challenges effectively. Not investment advice.