Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (DNA)
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.65+8.27%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DNA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage cash burn within $125M-$150M range for 2026 | It aims to manage cash burn within $125M-$150M in 2026. | Intact | cash burn exceeds $150M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Full Year 2026 Outlook • Ginkgo reaffirms expected total cash burn of ($150)-($125) million in 2026.” “◦ They both create revenue and speed the development of the autonomous lab ◦ We are seeing traction with our Cloud Lab from partners such as ProQR and Amazon, who included us as an integrated wet lab partner on their Amazon Bio Discovery platform Full Year 2026 Outlook • Ginkgo reaffirms expected total cash burn of $(150)-$(125) million in 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not a proven compounder, because it remains loss-making and is investing in autonomous labs and research infrastructure. The thesis is currently intact, but evidence of progress against key operating goals is mixed.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to DNA being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 56% premium, and model confidence is low. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are demanding relative to the evidence, while the overall priced-in signal is tagged as justified with low fragility.
Near term, two recent earnings misses and a 50% estimated miss probability make the next report an important execution check. Revenue rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026, but the company remained loss-making, and the supplied figures do not verify that the full-year cash-burn goal is being met. Management has reiterated its priorities, with government lab projects providing some concrete activity, but their financial contribution and Nebula’s capacity or utilization are not established.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether DNA can manage 2026 cash burn within its stated range and show measurable progress in scaling Nebula and its lab projects. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support the Healthcare backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, DNA remains an execution-dependent, loss-making growth story with an intact thesis but limited proof of delivery and elevated risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Revenue near $105.65M in 2026 | A primary condition in Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $105M total revenue. | Broken | revenue falls below $100M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete and integrate Tower Biosecurity acquisition | The company completed the Tower Biosecurity acquisition to boost growth. | Intact | Acquisition fails to integrate or deliver expected benefits by end 2026 | Acquisition completed Apr 2026 vs mid-2026 target M&A event confirms Tower Biosecurity acquisition completed on April 3, 2026, meeting the timeline target. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-3.19 → $-3.37 · observed estimates
$0.11B → $0.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-3.19 | $111,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-3.21 | $116,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-3.21 | $116,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-3.21 | $116,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-3.21 | $116,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-3.19 | $111,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-3.21 | $116,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-3.19 | $111,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-3.19 | $111,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-3.21 | $116,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-3.21 | $116,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-3.21 | $116,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.21 | $116,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-3.21 | $116,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-3.19 | $111,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-3.21 | $116,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-3.21 | $100,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-3.21 | $100,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-3.21 | $100,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-3.19 | $111,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-3.21 | $100,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-3.19 | $111,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-3.19 | $111,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-3.19 | $111,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-3.19 | $111,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-3.19 | $111,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-3.19 | $111,350,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.70 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.70 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.70 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.70 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.19 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.19 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.19 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.19 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.19 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.19 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.19 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.19 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.19 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.19 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.19 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.19 | $87,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.44 | $96,400,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-3.37 | $96,033,333 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.