Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (DNA)
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.65+8.27%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DNA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -59.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -24.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
DNA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the announcement is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. Ginkgo announces material information to the public through a variety of means, including filings with the SEC, public conference calls, its website (https://www.ginkgo.bio), its investor relations website (https://investors.ginkg…
Why it matters: Ginkgo set a 2026 cash burn range of $125 million to $150 million. Q3 results can show whether spending is on track.
Watch forOn November 5, Ginkgo reports its cash burn so far in 2026. The pace keeps the full-year total within $125 million to $150 million.
Also watch forOn November 5, reported cash burn is at a pace that puts the full-year total above $150 million or below $125 million.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue fell 48% year over year during program cuts. A smaller drop or a rise would show that decline is easing.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $20 million, the Q2 2026 result, and is down year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $20 million and is flat or higher year over year.
Why it matters: ADME-One signed 17 customers in its first six weeks. More customers and repeat work would show that early demand is lasting.
Supportive ifGinkgo reports more than 17 ADME-One customers. It confirms repeat orders or revenue from the service.
Worry ifGinkgo reports no customer growth beyond 17, or says customers have not placed repeat orders.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$378 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $934 loss on $10,000 · 9.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,272 loss on $10,000 · 52.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.