Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. (DNA)
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.950.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DNA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -76.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -27.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DNA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the announcement is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. Ginkgo announces material information to the public through a variety of means, including filings with the SEC, public conference calls, its website (https://www.ginkgo.bio), its investor relations website (https://investors.ginkg…
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of profitability.
Watch forThe earnings report shows smaller losses. It also shows a way to make money.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows bigger losses. There is no clear way to make money.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could help Ginkgo Bioworks. The sector's health affects its performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth moves back toward 10% or higher.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down. It is now below 10%.
Why it matters: The recent earnings miss raises concerns about cash management. This could impact future operations.
Worry ifCash burn is reported much higher than $150M in the next quarters.
Less concerning ifCash burn reported within the $125M to $150M range.
Why it matters: Finishing the deal would show a new direction and possible money growth for Ginkgo.
Supportive ifAn official notice that the Tower Biosecurity deal is done.
Worry ifA notice about delays or stopping the deal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$360 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $888 loss on $10,000 · 8.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,605 loss on $10,000 · 66.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Achieving this revenue target is critical for Ginkgo's growth narrative. It shows the success of their Biosecurity segment.
Supportive ifBiosecurity revenue reports show at least $40M for 2025.
Worry ifBiosecurity revenue falls short of $40M in 2025.
Why it matters: A revenue drop below $20 million would show ongoing struggles after a 49% decline in Q1.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $20 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue reported above $20 million.
Why it matters: A further decline in revenue would show ongoing challenges in Ginkgo's business model. It would signal that restructuring efforts are not yet effective.
Worry ifQ3 revenue down year over year worse than -48%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: News about Nebula's growth shows how well Ginkgo can meet demand for autonomous labs. Success may lead to more money.
Supportive ifManagement says they will double the size of Nebula and add more devices in RACs.
Worry ifNo updates on scaling Nebula or a delay in doubling its size.
Why it matters: Burning more cash than planned would worry people about Ginkgo's money and operations. This might hurt investor trust.
Worry ifCash burn reported above $150 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifCash burn remains within the $125 million to $150 million range.
Why it matters: New contracts would validate Ginkgo's position in the growing market for autonomous labs. It could signal future revenue growth.
Supportive ifThey announced new government contracts. These contracts are for autonomous labs.
Worry ifNo new government contracts are expected in the next few quarters.