Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
DigitalOcean (DOCN)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$70.70-15.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.79 → 1.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DOCN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain AI Customer ARR growth above 200% YoY in 2026-Q1 | A supporting condition in DigitalOcean's published investment case. The stated target is >=200% YoY. | Intact | AI Customer ARR growth falls below 150% YoY next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth investment tied to cloud services and AI demand, with improving profitability but high overall risk. The multi-year thesis is intact: recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry, though management has been described as volatile.
DOCN is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium in the valuation evidence. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions may be ahead of what the model expects, but confidence in that measure is low; the evidence labels the premium as justified and overall fragility as low.
Near term, revenue growth has accelerated, AI customer annual recurring revenue has grown rapidly, and management raised its 2026 growth outlook. Profitability is also progressing, while added data center capacity is still mixed because much of it is expected to come online in 2027 and 2028. Near-term miss risk is rated low, but erratic earnings surprises, recent peer misses, and the higher risk label remain concerns.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue acceleration, AI customer growth, and capacity coming online in step with demand, while profitability improves. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage credibility; rate cuts or steadier results from major technology companies could provide a more supportive sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, DOCN’s thesis rests on translating AI-led demand and new capacity into sustained growth and stronger profitability, with an expensive valuation and execution risk as important constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in DigitalOcean's published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase $1.188B notes and repay $500M loan by 2026-Q1. |
| Intact |
| Debt repayment falls short by over 20% in 2026-Q1 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Exhibit 99.1 DigitalOcean Secures $725 Million in Equipment Financing Facility to Fund Capacity Expansion Proactive financing transaction creates capacity to meet accelerating demand for the Company’s AI-Native Cloud platform in 2027 and 2028 BROOMFIELD, Colo., September 10, 2026 – DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: DOCN), the AI-Native Cloud purpose-built for inference and agentic workloads, today announced that it has entered into a new $725 million equipment finance facility (the "Equipment Finance Facility") to fund the expansion of capacity to meet its growing customer demand.” “"We continue to manage our balance sheet from a position of strength, with low leverage and healthy adjusted free cash flow margins.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Add about 80 MW committed data center capacity by 2027 | They add data center capacity to meet demand. | Intact | Committed data center capacity additions fall below 50 MW by 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Secured an incremental 20 megawatts (“MW”) of committed data center capacity expected to come online in 2028, bringing total committed capacity to approximately 180 MW, with additional capacity actively being pursued.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Keep adjusted operating margin near 25% in Q1 2026 | Profit margin is near 25%. | Broken | Adjusted operating margin falls below 20% next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2 Financial Outlook: DigitalOcean is providing guidance for the fourth quarter ending December 31, 2026 as follows: • Total revenue of $348 to $351 million, up 44% to 45% year-over-year.” “For the full year 2026, we now expect: • Total revenue of $1.208 to $1.211 billion, up approximately 34% year-over-year.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Sustain revenue growth near 29% year-over-year in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in DigitalOcean's published investment case. The stated target is >=29% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 20% next quarter | Revenue growth: 39.87% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=29% YoY. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202639.871273 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Secured an incremental 20 megawatts (“MW”) of committed data center capacity expected to come online in 2028, bringing total committed capacity to approximately 180 MW, with additional capacity actively being pursued.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.74 → $1.89 · observed estimates
$1.75B → $1.92B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.74 | $1,751,595,171 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.86 | $1,752,965,190 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.74 | $1,751,595,171 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.86 | $1,752,965,190 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.86 | $1,752,965,190 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.74 | $1,751,595,171 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.74 | $1,751,595,171 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.87 | $1,763,365,190 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.75 | $1,761,345,171 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.87 | $1,766,201,450 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.75 | $1,764,001,360 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.87 | $1,766,201,450 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.92 | $1,794,437,550 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.75 | $1,764,001,360 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.85 | $1,810,502,280 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.85 | $1,810,502,280 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.85 | $1,810,502,280 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.79 | $1,805,533,387 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.79 | $1,805,536,199 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.79 | $1,805,536,199 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.79 | $1,805,536,199 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.79 | $1,805,536,199 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.79 | $1,807,245,834 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.79 | $1,807,247,976 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.79 | $1,807,247,976 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.79 | $1,807,247,976 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.79 | $1,807,247,976 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.79 | $1,807,247,976 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.79 | $1,807,247,976 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.79 | $1,807,247,976 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.79 | $1,807,247,976 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.79 | $1,812,013,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.80 | $1,816,419,724 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.80 | $1,820,044,725 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.80 | $1,820,044,725 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.80 | $1,820,044,725 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.80 | $1,820,044,725 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.80 | $1,820,044,725 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,475 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.78 | $1,823,913,474 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.89 | $1,915,259,903 | 9 / 12 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.89 | $1,915,259,903 | 9 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 9 recorded
1 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.