DigitalOcean (DOCN)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$112.47+2.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DOCN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 40.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 55.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DOCN — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-23
Other Events. A copy of the opinion of Freshfields US LLP relating to the legality of the issuance and sale of shares of common stock of DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), offered pursuant to the Company’s prospectus supplement dated July 15, 2026, is attached hereto as Exhibit 5.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: A stable operating income margin shows better cost control and more profit.
Supportive ifOperating income margin stays above 14% in the next quarters.
Worry ifOperating income margin drops below 14%. This shows less profit.
Why it matters: A strong EBITDA margin shows good cost control and profit. It helps keep growth steady.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays above 38% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 38% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New capacity is important. It helps meet growing customer demand. It also supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifAn extra 60 MW of data center capacity will come online in 2027.
Worry ifNo new data center capacity comes online as planned. This limits growth.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can raise earnings per share and show financial strength. Watching these can help understand the company's spending plans.
Watch forThere is an announcement of more share buybacks or plans to pay off debt.
Also watch forNo news about buybacks or rising debt levels has been announced.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$379 on $10,000 · ±3.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $699 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,215 loss on $10,000 · 42.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Updates on customer growth in AI-Native Cloud indicate how well DigitalOcean is competing in the AI space. Strong traction can lead to increased revenue and market share.
Supportive ifManagement says they have new customer deals. They also see growth in AI Customer ARR.
Worry ifNo big updates or slower growth in AI Customer ARR have been reported.
Why it matters: High ARR growth means strong customer loyalty and new customers.
Supportive ifIncremental ARR of $93 million or more in the next quarter.
Worry ifIncremental ARR growth falls below $70 million.
Why it matters: A high RPO shows strong future revenue. It shows customer commitments to DigitalOcean's services.
Supportive ifRPO exceeds $800 million, showing strong customer demand.
Worry ifRPO falls below $700 million.
Why it matters: Improved cash flow margin indicates better financial health. This can support future investments and growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow margin reported above 1% in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow margin reported below 1% in Q2.
Why it matters: Management wants to improve how they use capital. News could show future growth.
Watch forA press release about new plans or changes in capital use.
Also watch forNo news or bad news about capital use plans.
Why it matters: Operating income has stayed the same. Growth would show better cost management.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $36.6M for Q2.
Worry ifOperating income remains at or below $36.6M for Q2.
Why it matters: Successful product launches can drive customer growth and revenue. This is key to maintaining competitive advantage.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least 5 new AI-Native Cloud products launched.
Worry ifNo new AI-Native Cloud products launched within the next quarter.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if growth momentum continues. A strong outlook signals confidence in demand.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance confirmed at $304M to $307M, showing strong growth expectations.
Worry ifGuidance falls below $304M, indicating weaker demand or growth concerns.
Why it matters: Continued strong growth in AI Customer ARR shows demand for AI-Native Cloud. This supports long-term growth.
Supportive ifAI Customer ARR growth is over 200%. This shows strong demand for AI services.
Worry ifAI Customer ARR growth is under 200%. This may mean problems in getting new customers.