DigitalOcean (DOCN)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$70.70-15.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DOCN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 54.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DOCN — debt issuance
Dated 2026-11-03
Other Events. On November 2, 2026, the Company entered into an equity distribution agreement (the “Equity Distribution Agreement”) with Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., MUFG Securities Americas Inc., Citizens JMP Securities, LLC, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC and BMO Capital Markets Corp., as managers (each, a “Manager” and collectively, the “Managers”), to sell shares of common stock, par value $0.000025 per share, of the Com…
Why it matters: Management set 35% growth or more as its Q4 goal. Reaching it would support the faster-growth plan.
Supportive ifReported Q4 revenue growth is 35% or higher year over year.
Worry ifReported Q4 revenue growth is below 35% year over year.
Why it matters: The facility can fund new capacity, but it also adds payment duties. Its terms will show the cost of that funding.
Watch forA company filing shows the facility funds capacity growth. It also shows clear payment terms and no borrowing beyond the $725 million facility.
Also watch forA company filing shows added borrowing beyond $725 million or terms that raise near-term payment duties.
Why it matters: The November 3 results test whether fast growth is continuing. Growth below the guide would weaken the raised outlook.
Watch forQ3 revenue is at least $304 million, within or above the $304 million to $307 million guide.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below $304 million, missing the low end of the guide.
Why it matters: AI customers drove much of the recent growth. Slower ARR growth would raise doubt about the new cloud products gaining use.
Watch forAI customer ARR grows at least 200% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forAI customer ARR growth falls below 200% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$289 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $767 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,100 loss on $10,000 · 61.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.