Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Docusign (DOCU)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$78.92-1.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.21 → 5.21 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DOCU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow improves to about $290 million quarterly | Free cash flow improves to nearly $290 million. | Improving | Free cash flow falls below $228 million quarterly | Free cash flow: $295.757M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $289 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 4, 2026295,757,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “▪ Free cash flow was $295.8 million, or a 34% margin, compared to $217.6 million, or a 27% margin, in the same period last year.” “▪ Free cash flow was $289.4 million compared to $227.8 million in the same period last year.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DOCU is a growing software business with signs of durable cash generation, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, but the recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed after an earnings miss.
The valuation evidence is mixed: DOCU is described as cheap versus peers, yet its premium versus peers is 0.77 and the value factor is rated expensive. The priced-in tag says expectations are justified, with low fragility, but model confidence is low and the expectations gap is negative.
Near term, revenue growth is tracking management’s 8% to 9% goal, IAM’s share of annual recurring revenue is rising, and free cash flow has improved. These are signs of progress, though the recent earnings miss and elevated risk make execution less certain.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on DOCU sustaining its revenue guidance and continuing to expand IAM adoption and cash generation. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; steadier results from major technology peers or lower interest rates could ease sector pressure.
For the next 1 to 3 years, DOCU combines improving business measures with elevated execution risk and a valuation picture that is not clear-cut. The long-term thesis rests on continued delivery against growth and platform priorities. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating margin near 30% in fiscal 2026 | Profit margins stay strong near 30%. | Broken | Operating margin falls below 25% | Operating margin: 13.43% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~29.85%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 4, 202613.430949 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $3.5 billion in fiscal 2027 | DocuSign grows revenue about 9% yearly, reaching $3.5 billion next year. | Intact | Revenue falls below $3.2 billion in FY27 | Revenue: $875.746M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.49 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 4, 2026875,746,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.09 → $5.21 · observed estimates
$3.76B → $3.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.09 | $3,761,557,316 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.09 | $3,761,557,316 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.09 | $3,761,557,316 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.09 | $3,761,557,316 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.09 | $3,761,557,316 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.09 | $3,761,556,482 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.09 | $3,761,552,088 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.09 | $3,761,552,088 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.09 | $3,761,552,088 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.09 | $3,761,552,088 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.09 | $3,761,552,088 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.09 | $3,761,552,088 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.09 | $3,761,552,088 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.09 | $3,761,552,088 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.09 | $3,761,552,088 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.09 | $3,761,552,088 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.09 | $3,761,552,088 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.09 | $3,761,552,088 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.09 | $3,760,681,602 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.09 | $3,760,681,602 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.09 | $3,760,681,602 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.11 | $3,763,202,713 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.20 | $3,771,208,079 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.20 | $3,771,208,079 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.20 | $3,771,208,079 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.20 | $3,771,208,079 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.20 | $3,771,208,079 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.21 | $3,781,416,086 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.21 | $3,781,416,086 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.21 | $3,781,416,086 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.21 | $3,781,416,086 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.21 | $3,781,416,086 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-05 | $5.21 | $3,783,228,797 | 12 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.