Docusign (DOCU)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$78.92-1.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DOCU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 61 industry peers
DOCU — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 3, 2026, Docusign, Inc. (the “Company”) reported financial results for the three and six months ended July 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The press release is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 an…
Why it matters: Free cash flow reached $295.8 million in Q2, up from $217.6 million a year earlier. A drop would weaken this cash trend.
Watch forThe December 3 report shows free cash flow at or above $295.8 million.
Also watch forThe December 3 report shows free cash flow below $217.6 million, the year-ago Q2 level.
Why it matters: The current quarter guide sets a clear test for Docusign's 9% growth pace. The prior results list an earnings miss, adding focus to this report.
Worry ifThe December 3 report shows revenue below $886 million, the low end of the prior guide.
Less concerning ifRevenue is at or above $886 million and the company keeps its fiscal 2027 revenue range of $3,499 million to $3,507 million.
Why it matters: Docusign launched AI agents for contract review and workflow tasks. More IAM use would support its platform push.
Supportive ifDocusign reports higher IAM ARR share than 15.1% and names customer use of AI agents in contract workflows.
Worry ifIAM ARR share stays at or below 15.1%, or Docusign reports slower customer use of its agents.
Why it matters: IAM rose to 15.1% of ARR by July 31. Management guides for 18% to 19% by fiscal year-end.
Supportive ifAt the December 3 earnings update, IAM is at or above 18% of total ARR exiting fiscal Q4.
Worry ifIAM is below 18% of total ARR exiting fiscal Q4, or management lowers its 18% to 19% goal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $514 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,129 loss on $10,000 · 41.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.