DiamondRock Hospitality Company (DRH)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.08+0.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Hotel & MotelSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue near $1.14 billion in FY26: FY26 revenue guidance $287M-$302M vs $1.14B target.
DiamondRock owns hotels in key markets and pays steady dividends. Revenue is expected near $1.14 billion in 2026. The dividend per share rose to $0.09 recently. Profit margins remain stable with a P/E of 14.3, slightly above peers.
Revenue and operating income have declined recently, showing weak growth. Management is behind on revenue and cost goals. The hotel sector faces headwinds, which could pressure earnings and dividends.
The price is about 15% below our fair value near $14. Analysts expect about 2% revenue growth, which aligns with management's guidance. Our fair value is 22% above the Street median, reflecting confidence in the dividend and stable earnings.
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.08 annualized
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.0 per share in FY26
Breaks if: operating income falls below $15 million quarterly
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable, income-generating opportunity with a focus on free cash flow growth and disciplined capital allocation. The current thesis state is weakened, reflecting recent performance shifts and a more challenging sector backdrop.
The market appears to price DRH as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully anticipate the potential risks or rewards based on recent performance and sector conditions.
Management is on track with priorities like increasing free cash flow, dividends, and disciplined capital allocation. However, the recent drop in company quality and neutral financial performance could limit growth potential in the near term.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector bellwethers. A reversal in guidance from management could negatively impact credibility, while continued positive earnings from peers could provide support.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change indicates that the reason to own it has weakened. The market reaction has been muted, with the price moving only modestly compared to the S&P.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $1.0 billion in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, DRH's performance will depend on management's execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.