Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (DSGR)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.98-0.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.01 → 1.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DSGR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit improves to about $163M | Gross profit improves to $163M. | Intact | Gross profit falls below $157M in future quarters | Gross profit: $180.136M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $163M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026180,136,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk industrial growth and acquisition story, not yet a consistent profit story, with earnings quality still classified as loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium.
DSGR is valued at a premium to peers, and the expectations gap is aligned rather than clearly favorable. The valuation evidence also labels the pricing unjustified, while the fragility assessment is low, so the snapshot points to expensive expectations without concentrated fragility signals.
Near-term results show strong sales and improving operating income: Q2 sales included 10.2% organic growth, and operating income rose sequentially from Q1. Management’s growth and profitability priorities are on track, but earnings-surprise trends are weakening, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and the merger’s completion remains unconfirmed.
Over the next few quarters, a guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while continued growth in sales and operating profitability would support it. Industrials bellwethers such as GWW, FAST, and FERG are important signals: continued strength could sustain sector momentum, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the next one to three years, DSGR has improving operating momentum and an intact growth thesis, but its loss-making profile, elevated risks, and expensive valuation make execution and sector conditions central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit rises with operating income near $13.6M. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $7.7M in future quarters |
Operating income: $27.868M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $13.6M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202627,868,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $2.06B | DSGR grows revenue to about $2.06B in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.06B in FY26 | Revenue: $557.734M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.06B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026557,734,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.13 → $1.01 · observed estimates
$2.14B → $2.23B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.62 | $2,135,833,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.62 | $2,135,833,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.62 | $2,135,833,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.62 | $2,135,833,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.62 | $2,135,833,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.62 | $2,135,833,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.62 | $2,135,833,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.62 | $2,135,833,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.62 | $2,135,833,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.64 | $2,159,166,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.64 | $2,159,166,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.68 | $2,170,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.68 | $2,170,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.13 | $2,135,833,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.01 | $2,231,400,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.