Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (DSGR)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$34.66-0.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DSGR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers
DSGR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-16
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Agreement and Plan of Merger Overview On July 15, 2026, Distribution Solutions Group, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“DSG” or the “Company”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) by and among Eclipse Parent Acquisitions, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Parent”), Eclipse Intermediate Acquisitions, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“Intermediate”), and Eclipse…
Why it matters: Better margins mean more profit and efficiency. This is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 10% in Q3. This means they make more money.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 9%. This shows ongoing pressure on margins.
Why it matters: Growth in gross profit would show success in plans and running operations better.
Supportive ifGross profit in Q2 increases compared to Q1.
Worry ifGross profit in Q2 decreases compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if DSG keeps growing its revenue and profits during the merger.
Watch forQ2 revenue growth exceeds 3.8% year over year, indicating strong performance.
Also watch forQ2 revenue growth is under 3.8%. This may mean there are operational problems.
Why it matters: Approval is key for the merger to close. It will determine DSG's future as a private company.
Supportive ifMost DSG stockholders not owned by LKCM Headwater voted for the merger.
Worry ifThe merger does not get the needed stockholder approvals.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$33 on $10,000 · ±0.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $279 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,966 loss on $10,000 · 39.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Managing cash flow is important for DSG after the merger. It shows financial health.
Worry ifCash flow stays above $400 million after the merger closes.
Less concerning ifCash flow falls below $350 million after the merger closes.
Why it matters: This shows the company can keep growing and gain from acquisitions.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grew by more than 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue grew by less than 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Keeping this level shows ongoing profit growth and better operations.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q3 was over $25 million.
Worry ifOperating income for Q3 was under $20 million.
Why it matters: Having enough cash is important. It helps with operations and the merger.
Supportive ifTotal liquidity was over $400 million in Q3.
Worry ifTotal liquidity was under $380 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The merger will make DSG a private company. It will change stockholder value and company operations.
Watch forThe merger is complete with all stockholder approvals and no legal issues.
Also watch forThe merger fails to close due to lack of stockholder approval or legal issues.