Devon Energy (DVN)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-07-08
$43.30+2.11%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.30. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $42 DVN trades at 11× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $52 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $54–$72. Note: our $52 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($54–$72). Not investment advice.
$54.00 – $72.00 (median $62.50) · 16 analysts · as of 2026-06-29
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 65% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 1.5 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.58/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $62.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $52.07 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $51.52 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $45.83 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $48.00 | 5.6 | 10.51 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $58.86 | 13.5 | 4.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $61.76 | 16.5 | 3.74 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $48.16 | 1.8 | 26.77 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $12.38 | 3.3 | 3.74 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $29.68 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $41.64 | 11.1 | 3.74 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $61.91 | 16.5 | 3.75 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $57.30 | 13.5 | 4.23 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $114.51 | 16.5 | 6.93 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $104.99 | 1.8 | 58.36 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 3Y | $22.96 | 3.3 | 6.93 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $77.20 | 11.1 | 6.93 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $56.29 | 13.5 | 4.15 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $151.44 | 16.5 | 9.17 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $138.85 | 1.8 | 77.18 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $30.36 | 3.3 | 9.17 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $102.10 | 11.1 | 9.17 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.