Devon Energy (DVN)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$48.06-1.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DVN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DVN — officer change
Dated 2026-08-20
Executive Vice President — John Raines: Two senior EVPs are leaving the company, but the filing explicitly details internal promotions to fill their roles, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: The merger is key for Devon's growth and unlocking synergies. It will create a larger shale operator with improved cash flow.
Supportive ifThe merger closes on or around May 7, 2026, as planned.
Worry ifThe merger is delayed or fails to close due to regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow. It shows a commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a quarterly dividend of $0.32 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.32 per share.
Why it matters: If they exceed this target, it proves the merger is working and helps shareholders. It shows Coterra is being integrated well.
Supportive ifSynergy capture is expected to be over $600 million by the end of 2027.
Worry ifSynergy capture is expected to be under $600 million by the end of 2027.
Why it matters: These synergies are important for better margins and cash flow after the merger.
Supportive ifDevon expects to reach the $1 billion synergy target by the end of 2027.
Worry ifThe company may report lower synergies or delays in reaching the target.
Why it matters: Going over this amount shows a strong commitment to giving back to shareholders. It shows the company is financially strong and values its shareholders.
Supportive ifShareholder returns were above $1 billion in Q3.
Worry ifShareholder returns were below $1 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: A new share buyback plan shows strong cash flow. It shows a commitment to give back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDevon announces a new share buyback plan over $5 billion after the merger.
Worry ifDevon does not announce a new share buyback plan or delays it for a long time.
Why it matters: Keeping production levels steady is key for cash flow and meeting investor needs.
Watch forProduction averages between 851,000 to 868,000 Boe per day in Q2 2026.
Also watch forProduction falls below 851,000 Boe per day in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A dividend announcement shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDevon will announce a quarterly dividend of $0.315 per share after the merger.
Worry ifNo dividend is announced or the amount is less than $0.315.
Why it matters: Better free cash flow helps with spending and makes investors feel confident.
Supportive ifQ2 free cash flow shows a significant increase compared to Q1.
Worry ifQ2 free cash flow declines or remains flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect plans and actions. Clear communication helps build investor trust.
Watch forThe new CFO outlines a clear strategy and vision in a public statement.
Also watch forThis change may cause uncertainty or slow down important plans.
Why it matters: Maintaining production levels is key to Devon's growth strategy. A decline signals trouble.
Worry ifQ2 production levels remain stable or increase compared to Q1.
Less concerning ifQ2 production levels decline compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Devon can keep strong production after the merger.
Supportive ifQ3 production averages 1,690,000 Boe per day or higher.
Worry ifQ3 production falls below 1,660,000 Boe per day.
Why it matters: Higher spending could signal issues with capital discipline and affect free cash flow.
Worry ifQ3 capital spending reported at $1,500 million or less.
Less concerning ifQ3 capital spending exceeds $1,500 million.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend remains at $0.32 per share or increases.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut or not maintained at $0.32 per share.
Why it matters: Reaching this target proves the merger is valuable and works well.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save at least $600 million by the end of 2027.
Worry ifManagement says the savings are much lower than $600 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$117 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $352 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,270 loss on $10,000 · 22.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.