Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Devon Energy (DVN)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$42.88-2.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.09 → 5.21 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DVN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies | The company targets $1 billion in yearly cost savings. | Intact | Synergies fall short of $1 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical energy producer with a merger-integration component, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: integration is on track, but management execution is mixed and recent financial performance is below the industry cohort.
DVN is rated cheap versus peers, and the evidence describes the current expectations gap as negative, with medium confidence. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility; the main pressure is a turbulent sector backdrop rather than a combination of expensive valuation and weak fundamentals.
Over the multi-year view, management expects to capture at least $1 billion in annual pre-tax merger synergies by year-end 2027, and the integration trajectory is reported as on track. Production has met or exceeded guidance, while capital management is behind its stated priority despite spending below the midpoint of quarterly guidance. Near term, earnings surprise trends are weakening, though the stated miss risk is low; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
The thesis hinges on completing the Coterra integration, delivering the planned synergies, and sustaining production. Near-term sector support depends in part on whether bellwethers COP, EOG, and OXY continue to report strong results and guide higher. A DVN guidance cut or weaker results from those peers could weaken the setup.
For the 1–3 year view, DVN combines peer-relative cheapness and on-track merger integration with uneven execution, a sector-sensitive outlook, and recent performance below its cohort. The key evidence to watch is delivery on synergies, production, and guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The merger with Coterra boosts output and scale. |
| Improving |
| Merger fails or integration delays beyond FY26 |
Merger status: Active (Eagle Ford sale $4.2B closed Oct 2026) Devon sold Eagle Ford assets for $4.2B to Crescent Energy, advancing capital discipline and merger readiness. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful debt exchange and capital optimization | Debt exchange improves its capital structure. | Intact | Debt exchange fails or worsens capital structure | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Production near 845,000 Boe per day | Devon Energy aims to keep production near 845,000 Boe per day. | Intact | Production falls below 835,000 Boe per day in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “30, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on Sep.” “During the first quarter, Devon repurchased shares for $69 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.29 → $5.21 · observed estimates
$26.35B → $24.66B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.29 | $26,354,131,158 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.00 | $27,240,556,270 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.00 | $27,240,556,270 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.00 | $27,240,556,270 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.00 | $27,240,556,270 | 13 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.05 | $27,240,556,270 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.27 | $26,273,061,803 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.05 | $26,622,111,730 | 12 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.27 | $26,273,061,803 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.05 | $25,889,841,980 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.05 | $25,889,841,980 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.27 | $26,273,061,803 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.05 | $25,889,841,980 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.27 | $26,273,061,803 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.35 | $26,387,801,014 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.16 | $26,507,401,920 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.16 | $26,507,401,920 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.16 | $26,507,401,920 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.35 | $26,387,801,014 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.88 | $25,658,880,260 | 14 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.35 | $26,387,801,014 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.35 | $26,387,801,014 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.35 | $26,387,801,014 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.35 | $26,387,801,014 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.35 | $26,387,801,014 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.35 | $26,387,801,014 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.35 | $26,387,801,014 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.00 | $25,116,739,235 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.03 | $25,212,132,374 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.05 | $25,220,342,901 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.05 | $25,220,342,901 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.05 | $25,220,342,901 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.07 | $25,337,869,217 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.07 | $25,337,869,217 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.07 | $25,337,869,217 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.07 | $25,337,869,217 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.05 | $25,557,014,020 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.05 | $25,557,014,020 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.05 | $25,557,014,020 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.03 | $25,281,770,650 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.01 | $25,281,770,650 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.00 | $25,252,470,650 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.01 | $25,017,127,117 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.01 | $25,017,127,117 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.01 | $25,017,127,117 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.01 | $25,017,127,117 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.01 | $25,017,127,117 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.95 | $25,017,127,117 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.95 | $25,017,127,117 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.95 | $25,017,127,117 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.95 | $25,017,127,117 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.95 | $25,017,127,117 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.95 | $25,017,127,117 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.03 | $25,150,973,467 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.01 | $25,156,978,908 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.01 | $25,156,978,908 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.01 | $24,997,240,956 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.01 | $24,997,240,956 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.01 | $24,997,240,956 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.01 | $24,997,240,956 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.01 | $24,997,240,956 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.01 | $24,997,240,956 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.01 | $24,997,240,956 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.03 | $24,997,240,956 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.03 | $24,991,714,640 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.03 | $24,991,714,640 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.03 | $24,991,714,640 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.03 | $24,991,714,640 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.03 | $24,991,714,640 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.03 | $24,991,714,640 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.03 | $25,052,554,693 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.07 | $25,132,945,582 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.09 | $25,132,945,582 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.09 | $25,132,945,582 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.09 | $25,132,945,582 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.14 | $25,611,866,958 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.16 | $25,654,821,094 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.07 | $25,158,332,731 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.12 | $25,070,420,343 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.12 | $25,070,420,343 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.12 | $25,070,420,343 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.11 | $25,005,946,659 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.09 | $25,005,946,659 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.06 | $24,839,946,659 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.12 | $24,715,958,388 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.12 | $24,715,958,388 | 10 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.09 | $24,672,308,388 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.09 | $24,672,308,388 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.12 | $24,672,308,388 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.12 | $24,744,958,388 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.06 | $24,643,373,739 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.06 | $24,643,373,739 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.09 | $24,714,578,739 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.21 | $24,677,540,839 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.21 | $24,677,540,839 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.21 | $24,677,540,839 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.21 | $24,661,468,018 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.21 | $24,661,468,018 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.21 | $24,661,468,018 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.21 | $24,661,468,018 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.21 | $24,661,468,019 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.21 | $24,661,468,019 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.21 | $24,661,468,018 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.21 | $24,661,468,019 | 12 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 27 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.