Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Dawson Geophysical Co (DWSN)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.58-5.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DWSN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain positive net income above $7.6 million in 2026-Q1 | The company improved net income from $569,000 to $7.66 million in one quarter. | Intact | net income falls below $5 million in any quarter | Net income: $-3.44M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $7.6M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 2026-3,440,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, execution-dependent business with a sector tailwind, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: revenue growth has been strong, but recent financial performance and earnings quality remain weak.
The evidence describes DWSN as cheap versus peers, while also flagging an expensive valuation and a large negative expectations gap. The priced-in assessment says fragility is limited and judged justified, rather than reflecting the full combination of weak execution, expensive valuation, and sector turbulence.
Near-term revenue has grown year over year, and management says demand for high-density channel count jobs should increase. Profitability is less steady: net income moved from a profit in 2026-Q1 to a loss in 2026-Q2, partly due to strategic transaction costs, while adjusted EBITDA improved year over year. The next earnings release carries risk, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on revenue gains translating into sustained positive earnings and continued operating discipline. Near term, guidance and execution are key swing factors. Continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support the energy-sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
DWSN has evidence of revenue growth and a supportive sector backdrop, but inconsistent profitability, weak relative performance, and high risk leave the long-term thesis unsettled. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Dawson Geophysical Co's published investment case. The stated target is >=70% YoY. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 50% in FY25 |
Revenue growth: 81.83% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=70% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 202681.829256 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Valuation premium justified by earnings growth | Its valuation is high but justified by strong earnings growth. | Broken | P/E ratio remains above 40 while earnings growth falls below 10% annually | P/E (TTM): 17.45x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202617.4455 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.75 → $-0.75 · observed estimates
$0.17B → $0.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.75 | $171,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.