Dawson Geophysical Co (DWSN)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.58-5.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DWSN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 53.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 74.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers
DWSN — earnings in line
Dated 2026-03-31
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 30, 2026, Dawson Geophysical Company (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its preliminary and unaudited financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Limitation on Incorporation by Reference. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” f…
Why it matters: Dawson says seasonal Canadian work is due to resume in the fourth quarter. More large jobs could keep crews busy into 2027.
Supportive ifDawson says Canadian crews resumed work in Q4. It confirms large-channel jobs are underway or booked into 2027.
Worry ifDawson reports Canadian work did not resume in Q4, or says large-channel bids did not turn into jobs.
Why it matters: Fee revenue fell from $32.5 million in Q1 to $14 million in Q2. Positive earnings would show the Q2 loss was not lasting.
Watch forThe Nov. 11 release reports fee revenue above $14 million and positive net income, with no more than $1.7 million in strategic transaction costs.
Also watch forThe Nov. 11 release reports fee revenue below $14 million or another net loss, especially if transaction costs are below $1.7 million.
Why it matters: Cash was $5.8 million and the working capital deficit was $2.9 million at June 30. A larger deficit could add pressure to fund work.
Worry ifThe next results show a working capital deficit above $2.9 million, or a balance drawn on the credit line. It had no balance at June 30.
Less concerning ifThe next results show working capital at or above zero, with cash above $5.8 million and no credit line balance.
Why it matters: A successful job could prove Dawson's new gear can deliver clearer seismic data. Management says this may lift demand for similar work.
Supportive ifDawson says the 70,000-channel job met its data quality goals. It led to another high-density job or contract.
Worry ifDawson reports the job missed its data quality goals, or gives no success update in its next results.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$348 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $949 loss on $10,000 · 9.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,781 loss on $10,000 · 77.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Wilks controls about 80% of Dawson's shares. A signed deal could change the company's assets or business; talks may also end without a deal.
Watch forDawson or Wilks announces a signed deal, such as an asset sale, asset contribution, or business combination. Key terms are disclosed.
Also watch forDawson says talks ended without a signed deal, or reports no agreement and continued talks in its next results.