Dawson Geophysical Co (DWSN)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.65+0.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DWSN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 45.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DWSN — earnings in line
Dated 2026-03-31
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 30, 2026, Dawson Geophysical Company (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its preliminary and unaudited financial results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. Limitation on Incorporation by Reference. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” f…
Why it matters: More bids show strong demand for seismic services. This can help increase revenue.
Supportive ifManagement reports a big rise in bids for larger channel count jobs.
Worry ifBid activity is flat or lower compared to previous quarters.
Why it matters: The capital budget impacts future growth and investments. It's a new priority for the company.
Watch forManagement shares how they will use the $3 million budget.
Also watch forNo updates on the $3 million capital budget.
Why it matters: More bids show growing demand for seismic services and possible revenue increase.
Supportive ifBid activity goes up by at least 30% from previous quarters.
Worry ifBid activity stays the same or goes down in the Canadian market.
Why it matters: High revenue growth shows strong demand for Dawson's seismic services. It also shows operational success.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 80% year-over-year compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 60% year-over-year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$411 on $10,000 · ±4.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $958 loss on $10,000 · 9.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,433 loss on $10,000 · 64.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: High Adjusted EBITDA shows good operations and profit. It means costs are managed well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 is above $10.9 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is under $8 million. This shows there are problems with operations.
Why it matters: Positive net income would show that the company is making more money and working well.
Supportive ifQ3 net income turns positive after a loss of $3.4 million in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 net income remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Positive net income shows the company is financially healthy. It means costs are managed well.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 is over $7 million. This confirms strong financial performance.
Worry ifNet income drops below $5 million. This shows possible operational problems.
Why it matters: Energy sector trends affect Dawson's growth. A shift could impact revenue and strategy.
Watch forEnergy sector revenue growth is improving. This shows a good environment.
Also watch forEnergy sector revenue growth keeps falling. This suggests ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Success in this job could lead to increased demand for seismic services and improved margins.
Supportive ifThe high-density channel count job is complete with positive feedback from clients.
Worry ifJob completion had big problems or bad feedback. This shows challenges in operations.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it could signal a positive shift for Dawson Geophysical. This may help the company recover from its recent valuation drop.
Supportive ifEnergy sector revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry ifEnergy sector revenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Using the $3 million capital budget well is key for growth. It affects future results.
Watch forManagement says they have used all the capital budget for growth projects.
Also watch forManagement says the capital budget is not fully used. This suggests there are inefficiencies.
Why it matters: High Adjusted EBITDA growth shows better efficiency and profit. It means the company controls costs well.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA growth is over 300% from last year. This confirms improvements in operations.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA growth is below 200% from last year. This suggests there are operational issues.