Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.91+4.90%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.61 → 1.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
maintain dividend per share at $0.51 | Dynex Capital pays a steady dividend of $0.51 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.51 | Dividend per share: $0.51 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.51 per share dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 27, 20260.51 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company grew its capital base by $384 million during the third quarter through a combination of common and preferred equity raises, using the net proceeds to opportunistically add $3.2 billion of Agency MBS.” “The Company grew its capital base by $391 million, using the net proceeds to opportunistically add $2.8 billion of Agency MBS.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DX is a rate-sensitive mortgage real estate investment trust, so its results can shift with interest rates and mortgage spreads. The long-term thesis is in an insufficient state because there is not enough recent financial history to assess it, while management execution and earnings quality are both volatile.
The valuation evidence points to DX as cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is 0.52 and the model confidence is medium. The priced-in tag is unjustified, with low fragility; recent valuation fell from 70.0 to 55.2, but the evidence does not show what specific expectations the market assumes.
Near-term, recent evidence is mixed: a reported October earnings beat sits alongside a Q3 net loss and a decline in book value per common share as wider mortgage spreads pressured valuations. Management continued deploying capital into Agency MBS and maintained the quarterly dividend, while hedges partly offset volatility. The next call matters because a guidance cut would be a negative signal, and the industry has a high rate of misses despite DX’s quiet near-term risk tier.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on whether continued Agency MBS investment can support the portfolio without further pressure on book value. Near-term, Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate names, while weaker peer results or a DX guidance cut could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, DX combines a peer-relative valuation discount with volatile earnings, mixed hedging results, and uncertainty about management execution. The long-term thesis remains unsettled and hinges on portfolio performance, guidance, and the rate backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
earnings per share growth to at least $1.37 in 2026 and $1.58 in 2027 | Dynex Capital pays a steady dividend of $0.51 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.37 in 2026 or below $1.58 in 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
execute $300 million share repurchase program | It has a new $300 million share buyback program. | Intact | program is cancelled or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
maintain PE ratio below peer median of 9.56 | A supporting condition in Dynex Capital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <= 9.56 PE. | Broken | PE rises above 9.56 | P/E (TTM): 8.59x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20268.5906 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.58 → $1.65 · observed estimates
$0.49B → $0.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.58 | $489,169,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.58 | $489,169,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.61 | $507,371,275 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.60 | $523,705,409 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.57 | $489,169,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.60 | $523,705,409 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.60 | $523,705,409 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.57 | $489,169,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.60 | $523,705,409 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.57 | $489,169,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.57 | $489,169,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.57 | $489,169,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.57 | $489,169,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.57 | $489,169,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.57 | $489,169,000 | 5 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.61 | $524,744,909 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.58 | $509,022,749 | 4 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.58 | $509,022,749 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.58 | $509,022,749 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.58 | $509,022,749 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.58 | $509,022,749 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.58 | $509,022,749 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.58 | $509,022,749 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.58 | $509,022,749 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.53 | $513,802,748 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.53 | $513,802,748 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.53 | $513,802,748 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.53 | $513,802,748 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.55 | $519,536,149 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.63 | $519,536,149 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.63 | $519,536,149 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.63 | $519,536,149 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.63 | $519,536,149 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.63 | $519,536,149 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.63 | $519,536,149 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.63 | $519,536,149 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.62 | $515,559,509 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.62 | $530,749,386 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.62 | $530,749,386 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.62 | $530,749,386 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.62 | $530,749,386 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.62 | $530,749,386 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.62 | $530,749,386 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.65 | $522,957,999 | 5 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.