Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.90+0.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -32.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
DX — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-28
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 28, 2026, Dynex Capital, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into amendment no. 10 (“Amendment No. 10”) to the distribution agreement, dated June 29, 2018, as amended on May 31, 2019, August 3, 2021, June 3, 2022, February 10, 2023, October 29, 2024, May 1, 2025, July 29, 2025, January 27, 2026, and April 28, 2026 (the “Agreement” and, as amended by Amendment No. 10, the “Amended Agreement”), by and among the Company, on the one hand, and BTIG, LL…
Why it matters: This report will show if the company continues to grow its investment portfolio and manage risks well.
Watch forEarnings report shows total return over $0.81 per common share.
Also watch forEarnings report shows total return below $(0.34) per common share.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend is important for investor trust. Cuts could mean bigger financial problems.
Worry ifThe company says it will keep or raise the dividend per share next quarter.
Less concerning ifThe company announces a cut in the dividend per share in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in the portfolio shows good use of capital and market chances.
Supportive ifThe investment portfolio was above $27.6 billion in Q3.
Worry ifThe investment portfolio was below $27.6 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: This agreement could affect future growth. It may change the company's strategy.
Watch forA press release lists benefits or changes from the agreement.
Also watch forThere are no updates or negative effects from the agreement.
Why it matters: Getting more capital would help growth and investment in Agency MBS. This would make the portfolio stronger.
Supportive ifCapital raised through the ATM program exceeds $391 million.
Worry ifCapital raised through the ATM program is less than $391 million.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifReal estate sector revenue growth speeds up to over 7% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing the program may show strong cash flow. It also shows management confidence.
Supportive ifThere was an announcement about finishing or making good progress in the share buyback.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend declared remains at $0.51 per common share.
Worry ifDividend declared drops below $0.51 per common share.
Why it matters: A drop in economic return may show weaker performance. This could impact dividend payments.
Worry ifQ3 economic return per share was below $0.50.
Less concerning ifQ3 economic return per share was above $0.50.
Why it matters: Progress on the buyback program may show management's trust in the stock's value.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks of at least $50 million.
Worry ifNo updates or buybacks were announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in book value could raise concerns about asset quality and leverage.
Worry ifQ3 book value per share reported below $12.60.
Less concerning ifQ3 book value per share reported above $12.60.
Why it matters: Higher leverage may mean more risk and possible cash flow problems.
Worry ifLeverage was above 8.6 times equity in Q3.
Less concerning ifLeverage was at or below 8.1 times equity in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$62 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $159 loss on $10,000 · 1.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,529 loss on $10,000 · 15.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.