Dynex Capital, Inc. (DX)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.91+4.90%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -46.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DX — debt issuance
Dated 2026-09-25
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 22, 2026, Dynex Capital, Inc. (the “ Company ”), entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, RBC Capital Markets, LLC, UBS Securities LLC, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc., acting as representatives of the several underwriters listed on Schedule 1 thereto (collectivel…
Why it matters: Book value fell from $12.90 to $10.91 in Q3 as mortgage spreads widened. A recovery would show that losses have eased.
Supportive ifQ4 book value per common share is above $10.91, with total economic return above zero.
Worry ifQ4 book value per common share is at or below $10.91, with total economic return below zero.
Why it matters: A repurchase would show that DX is using capital for shares, not only adding mortgage assets. The supplied inputs do not name the program's size or start date.
Watch forA company filing or release says DX bought back common shares under the new program.
Also watch forThe next quarterly report shows no program share buybacks.
Why it matters: DX posted a negative total economic return in Q3 after a positive Q2. A return above zero would show a better quarter for book value and dividends.
Supportive ifQ4 total economic return per common share is above $0.00.
Worry ifQ4 total economic return per common share is below $0.00.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$66 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $196 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,573 loss on $10,000 · 25.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.