Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Dycom Industries (DY)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$192.79-9.20%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
20.41 → 20.42 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $284 million in Q2 2026 | Profit targets also rose to $284 million EBITDA. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $202 million in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company continues to expect an increase in consolidated Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA margin for the year.” “Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA margin of 12.3% increased 31 bps over the prior year quarter reflecting operating leverage and continued investment to scale the Company’s footprint and increase headcount, further strengthening Dycom’s position to execute on multi-year build programs.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented industrial services business with acquisition-driven expansion, rather than a settled, low-risk compounder. The thesis is on watch: management is meeting its stated growth and margin priorities, while recent momentum has weakened and performance remains below its industry cohort.
DY is described as cheap versus peers, while the pricing assessment is tagged as justified and fragility is low. The negative expectations gap suggests expectations are cautious, but the evidence does not show that valuation alone resolves the business risks.
Near-term results show strong contract-revenue growth, higher fiscal 2027 guidance, and expanding adjusted EBITDA margins, with acquisitions adding revenue and EBITDA. The next call remains important: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and the recent history of a deep miss plus industry peers missing adds risk despite a low estimated near-term miss probability.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining revenue growth, integrating acquisitions, and continuing margin expansion. Sector signals matter too: continued strength from PWR, FIX, and EME would support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the 1-3 year view, DY has evidence of execution and a cheaper-than-peer valuation, but its weakened momentum, relative underperformance, and sector headwinds leave the thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS at least $4.61 in Q3 2026 | A supporting condition in Dycom Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.61. | Intact | EPS falls below $4.4 in Q3 2026 | Diluted EPS: $3.81 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.61. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 27, 20263.81 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $7.38 billion in fiscal 2027 | A primary condition in Dycom Industries's published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.38 billion. | Broken | Revenue falls below $6.85 billion in fiscal 2027 | Revenue: $2.006B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.38 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 20262,005,907,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$19.98 → $20.42 · observed estimates
$8.48B → $8.55B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $19.98 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $19.98 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $19.95 | $8,466,574,290 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $19.95 | $8,466,574,290 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $19.95 | $8,466,574,290 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $19.95 | $8,466,574,290 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $19.95 | $8,466,574,290 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $19.97 | $8,483,760,780 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $19.96 | $8,482,097,143 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $19.96 | $8,482,097,143 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $19.96 | $8,482,097,143 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $19.96 | $8,482,097,143 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $19.96 | $8,482,097,143 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $19.96 | $8,482,097,143 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $20.38 | $8,568,912,990 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $20.38 | $8,568,912,990 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $20.38 | $8,568,912,990 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $20.38 | $8,568,912,990 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $20.38 | $8,568,912,990 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $20.38 | $8,568,912,990 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $20.35 | $8,537,049,354 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $20.36 | $8,559,236,819 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $20.36 | $8,559,236,819 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $20.41 | $8,556,600,455 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $20.40 | $8,553,568,637 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $20.40 | $8,553,568,637 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $20.40 | $8,553,568,637 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $20.40 | $8,553,568,637 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $20.40 | $8,553,568,637 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $20.40 | $8,553,568,637 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $20.42 | $8,551,454,583 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $20.42 | $8,551,454,583 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $20.42 | $8,551,454,583 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $20.42 | $8,551,454,583 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $20.42 | $8,551,454,583 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $20.42 | $8,551,454,583 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $20.42 | $8,551,454,583 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $20.42 | $8,551,454,583 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.