GrafTech International Ltd (EAF)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.41-11.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EAF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -81.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 19.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 100.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EAF — restructuring
Dated 2026-10-26
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On October 20, 2026, the Company’s management finalized estimates of non-cash charges related to the Mexico Facility Closure. The Company estimates that the total amount of non-cash charges associated with the Mexico Facility Closure will be approximately $25 million to $35 million, consisting of approximately $12.3 million of fixed asset write-offs and the remainder being accelerated depreciation. We continue to expect that the one-time cash…
Why it matters: Management kept its full-year volume goal, but Q3 sales were flat year over year. The full-year result tests whether earlier growth holds.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 sales volume is at least 5% above 2025's 109.5 thousand MT.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 sales volume is less than 5% above 2025, or is below 109.5 thousand MT.
Why it matters: GrafTech plans to move Monterrey work to France and Spain. The closure aims to save $20 million to $25 million a year by 2028.
Supportive ifGrafTech says its Monterrey operations have wound down and customer work has moved. Yearly cash savings reach $20 million or more by 2028.
Worry ifThe closure or transfer is delayed, or reported yearly cash savings are below $20 million by 2028.
Why it matters: GrafTech expects higher prices after Q3 pricing fell 7% year over year. A rise would show that newer customer deals are reaching sales.
Supportive ifQ4 weighted-average realized price rises at least 5% from Q3's roughly $3,900 per MT.
Worry ifQ4 realized price is flat or lower than Q3's roughly $3,900 per MT.
Why it matters: Management aims to offset higher costs for raw materials, energy, and shipping. Lower costs could help offset weak prices.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 cash cost of goods sold per MT is at least 1% below 2025.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 cash cost of goods sold per MT is flat or higher than 2025.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$424 on $10,000 · ±4.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $877 loss on $10,000 · 8.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,096 loss on $10,000 · 71.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.