GrafTech International Ltd (EAF)
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.20-1.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EAF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -89.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 100.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
EAF — restructuring
Dated 2026-08-31
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On August 6, 2026, the Board of Directors of GrafTech International Ltd. (the “Company”) approved a plan to permanently cease manufacturing operations at the Company’s graphite electrode and pin manufacturing facility located in Monterrey, Mexico (the “Monterrey Facility”). The Company began notifying affected employees on August 31, 2026. The Company is undertaking this action to better align the Company’s manufacturing capacity with current…
Why it matters: Capex guidance of $35M is key for future growth. Confirmation shows commitment to capital management.
Supportive ifManagement says they will spend $35M on capital projects in future updates.
Worry ifManagement has reduced their spending plan to less than $30M.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is getting older. If growth speeds up, it may help GrafTech.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the industrial sector rises above 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth in the industrial sector continues to decline or stays below 5%.
Why it matters: Sales volume growth is key for GrafTech's revenue recovery. Meeting this target shows demand strength.
Supportive ifQ3 sales volume growth of 5% or more compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifSales volume growth falls below 5% YoY.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is key for running operations and facing market challenges.
Supportive ifLiquidity reported at or above $250 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow drops below $250 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$365 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $867 loss on $10,000 · 8.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,361 loss on $10,000 · 73.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Good pricing actions can raise margins and profits. This is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifNew customer deals are at prices 15% higher than before.
Worry ifNo new commitments at higher prices or further price declines.
Why it matters: Liquidity is key for running operations. It helps deal with market challenges.
Worry ifCash stays above $200 million after planned spending on projects.
Less concerning ifCash drops below $200 million after planned spending on projects.
Why it matters: Capex guidance is key to understanding future growth plans. Changes could signal management's confidence in the business.
Watch forManagement says capex spending matches the $35M guidance.
Also watch forManagement cuts capex guidance to $35M.
Why it matters: Staying within capex guidance shows good capital management. This is important for financial health.
Supportive ifCapex reported at or below $35M for the year.
Worry ifCapex is over $35M. This may mean the company is spending too much.
Why it matters: Having enough cash is important. It helps deal with industry challenges and keeps operations running.
Watch forLiquidity remains above $250 million after the term loan draw.
Also watch forLiquidity falls below $200 million after the term loan draw.
Why it matters: Sales volume growth shows demand strength. A 5-10% increase supports management's guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 sales volume growth of at least 5% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 sales volume grew less than 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Better pricing can help make more money. This is important for long-term health.
Supportive ifPrice increases announced for uncommitted volume of $600 to $1,200 per MT.
Worry ifNo price increases announced or delays in starting them.
Why it matters: Lower costs can improve margins. This is crucial for financial performance.
Supportive ifCash cost of goods sold per MT declines by a low single-digit percentage point.
Worry ifCash cost of goods sold per MT increases or remains flat.