Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. (EBS)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.85-0.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.05 → 1.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EBS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain adjusted gross margin between 45% and 47% in 2026 | A primary condition in Emergent BioSolutions, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 45% to 47%. | Intact | Adjusted gross margin falls below 45% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EBS is a higher-risk business recovery and execution story, with potential support from a sector tailwind. The multi-year view remains intact, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution is mixed.
The valuation evidence points to EBS being cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, so the market appears to assume weak execution. The evidence does not show that all business risks are fully reflected in that discount.
Near term, results may remain uneven: Q2 included a large non-cash impairment, and realized restructuring savings have not yet been quantified. MCM revenue rose from Q1 to Q2, supported by government contract changes and international orders, while refinancing and bond reduction are completed steps; the recent guidance raise is a positive but raises the stakes for future delivery.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether restructuring produces the estimated annual savings and whether MCM growth continues beyond timing effects. Near term, a guidance reversal or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued earnings strength from sector peers could support the healthcare backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, EBS has a credible but fragile execution thesis: recent performance supports it, while losses, elevated risk, and unproven savings remain important constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Government contracts support steady funding. |
| Intact |
| Loss or non-renewal of key government contracts |
Contract extended to 2027 Emergent exercised option for $22.3M BioThrax delivery order, with remaining deliveries expected in 2027. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve Q2 2026 revenue between $170M and $185M | A supporting condition in Emergent BioSolutions, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $170M to $185M. | Intact | Q2 revenue falls below $170M | Revenue: $110M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $170M to $185M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 2026110,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve full year 2026 revenue between $720M and $760M | A primary condition in Emergent BioSolutions, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $720M to $760M. | Broken | Full year revenue falls below $720M in FY26 | Revenue: $110M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $720M to $760M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026110,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.91 → $1.05 · observed estimates
$0.89B → $0.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.28 | $810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.91 | $892,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.91 | $810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.91 | $810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.91 | $810,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.05 | $703,327,874 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.