Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. (EBS)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.85-0.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EBS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -80.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 81.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EBS — CFO transition
Dated 2026-10-16
CFO — Richard Lindahl: The CFO is retiring with a planned transition period and a named internal successor (Interim CFO), indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: The plan cuts about 90 jobs and aims to save $40 million a year. Measured savings would show the plan is working.
Supportive ifA company update reports at least $10 million in annual savings from the plan, with costs down from Q2 levels.
Worry ifA company update reports no savings, or says the $40 million annual goal has been cut.
Why it matters: The company recorded a $191.3 million NARCAN asset charge as sales fell. Another charge or lower sales would point to more strain.
Worry ifQ3 results report another impairment charge for the NARCAN asset group. Or year-over-year naloxone sales fall by more than 22%.
Less concerning ifQ3 reports no further NARCAN impairment and naloxone sales are flat or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose to $96.5 million, while the company still faces losses and high debt. A similar result would show stronger cash earnings.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is over $96.5 million. Its margin is at least 41%.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $35.6 million, the Q1 result, or the margin falls below 23%.
Why it matters: Q1 and Q2 naloxone sales totaled $95.3 million. A lower Q3 result would show the decline is still deepening.
Worry ifQ3 2026 naloxone sales are below $95 million, or fall more than 10% from Q2's $52.4 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 naloxone sales reach at least $52.4 million and stop falling year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $591 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,799 loss on $10,000 · 68.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: MCM sales rose in Q2, but management tied much of the change to order timing. A new result tests whether demand lasts.
Watch forQ3 MCM product sales top $101.8 million, the Q1 level. New government orders or deliveries are reported.
Also watch forQ3 MCM product sales are below $101.8 million. No new government order or delivery is cited.