Emergent BioSolutions, Inc. (EBS)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.21-0.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EBS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -69.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 58.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EBS — officer change
Dated 2026-08-05
Chief Medical Officer, Head of Research and Development — Simon Lowry: The role of Chief Medical Officer, Head of Research and Development is being eliminated, leading to Simon Lowry's departure.
Why it matters: Securing government contracts is crucial for revenue. New contracts signal growth potential.
Supportive ifNew government contracts or funding deals are now announced.
Worry ifNo new government contracts or funding reported in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New contract changes would show strong demand for Emergent's products. This helps revenue grow.
Supportive ifEmergent gets new contract changes worth more than $50 million.
Worry ifNo new big contract changes or extensions are announced for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows confidence in revenue stability. A change could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifManagement says revenue guidance is still $720 million to $760 million.
Less concerning ifManagement cuts revenue guidance to less than $720 million.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows the company is doing well with government contracts. This means the turnaround strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grew over 50% compared to last year. This shows strong demand and good contract work.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 30% compared to last year. This suggests problems with keeping government contracts.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $597 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,799 loss on $10,000 · 68.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If naloxone revenue keeps falling, it shows ongoing problems with this important product.
Worry ifQ3 naloxone revenue down year over year worse than -20%.
Less concerning ifNaloxone revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: This revenue target is key for maintaining growth and meeting management's guidance.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at or above $170 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $170 million.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted gross margin means profits are getting worse. It also shows operational problems.
Worry ifAdjusted gross margin falls below 45% in Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted gross margin remains above 45% in Q3.
Why it matters: The health care sector is slowing down. If revenue growth speeds up, it could help Emergent BioSolutions.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is close to 10% or more.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down. It is now below 5%.
Why it matters: New contracts are vital for revenue growth and business stability.
Supportive ifNew government contracts have been announced. They total at least $30 million.
Worry ifNo new government contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The restructuring aims to save $40 million annually. Progress will show if the company can improve its cost structure.
Supportive ifManagement says the restructuring plan will save at least $10 million each year.
Worry ifNo savings reported. There are also more financial losses from restructuring.