ECB Bancorp Inc/MD (ECBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.76-3.67%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ECBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -62.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 26.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 89.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
ECBK — officer change
Dated 2025-12-22
John Migliozzi: The severance multiplier in the Change in Control Agreement was increased from 2.0x to 2.5x.
Why it matters: A lower net interest margin can hurt profits. It shows pressure on loan and deposit pricing.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 2.40% in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin stays above 2.40% in Q3.
Why it matters: A decline in sector revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may affect ECB Bancorp's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below 15%. This may mean a slowdown.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is above 15%. This suggests the financial sector is still strong.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows the bank can make money. This helps with growth and stability.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $12 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $12 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in diluted EPS signals strong earnings growth. It reflects the bank's ability to improve profitability.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS was above $0.40 in Q2. This shows earnings are still growing.
Worry ifDiluted EPS is below $0.35. This means earnings growth is slowing.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$72 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $252 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,333 loss on $10,000 · 13.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt ECB Bancorp's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% over the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays at or above the median of 15%.
Why it matters: Net income growth shows the bank is doing well. It also shows good management.
Supportive ifNet income increases from $3.3 million in Q2 2026 to above $3.5 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet income declines or stays below $3.3 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings growth over 126.5% shows strong momentum. It supports management's growth plan.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings growth reported above 126.5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 earnings growth reported below 100% year over year.
Why it matters: Stable loan growth above 0.1% indicates healthy demand and supports net income growth.
Supportive ifTotal loans grow more than 0.1% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifTotal loans decline or grow less than 0.1% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets may mean weaker asset quality. This could hurt earnings.
Worry ifNon-performing assets are more than 0.1% of total assets.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets are less than 0.1% of total assets.
Why it matters: Opening the new branch is key for expanding market presence and driving future growth.
Watch forAnnouncement of the new branch opening date in Medford.
Also watch forDelay in the planned opening of the Medford branch.