Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC (EDU)
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$53.96+3.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesEducation & Training ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.10 → 4.95 EPS · FY ending May 31, 2028 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EDU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Stable demand for private education in China | The company is profitable and benefits from lasting demand for private education in China. | Intact | Significant decline in enrollment or regulatory restrictions reduce demand | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a sector-sensitive business setup, but the evidence is too limited to classify EDU confidently as a durable compounder or another investment type. The long-term thesis is insufficiently established, and overall confidence is low.
The evidence provides no valuation level or market expectations, so it is not possible to assess whether EDU looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers. No fragility gates fired, but that does not resolve the valuation picture.
Near-term miss risk is described as low, though the evidence notes recent misses among industry peers and a deep miss in EDU’s recent history. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, but recent financial-performance history is insufficient to assess EDU’s fundamental trajectory.
The near-term outlook partly hinges on employment: continued weakening in the jobs report could increase recession concerns for cyclical businesses. The sector tailwind depends on bellwethers MH, UTI, and COUR continuing to beat earnings and guide higher; misses or lower guidance could weaken that support.
For a 1-to-3-year view, EDU’s thesis remains uncertain because evidence on its own financial trajectory and valuation is thin. The key signals are employment conditions and whether sector bellwethers sustain their momentum. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $4.30. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $4.30 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $0.39 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $4.30. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 29, 20260.39 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 10% annually | A primary condition in NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION and TECHNOLOGY GROUP INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 23.2% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 29, 202623.196574 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.80 → $4.95 · observed estimates
$6.90B → $7.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.80 | $6,904,313,377 | 9 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.80 | $6,904,313,377 | 9 / 21 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.80 | $6,904,313,377 | 9 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.80 | $6,904,313,377 | 9 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.80 | $6,904,313,377 | 9 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.80 | $6,904,313,377 | 9 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.89 | $7,087,281,310 | 9 / 22 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.99 | $7,214,685,856 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.99 | $7,214,685,856 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.06 | $7,323,688,870 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.06 | $7,323,688,870 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.06 | $7,323,688,870 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.06 | $7,323,688,870 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.18 | $7,388,022,801 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.12 | $7,417,768,208 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.08 | $7,385,297,560 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.08 | $7,385,297,560 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.08 | $7,385,297,560 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.12 | $7,417,768,208 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.12 | $7,417,768,208 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.04 | $7,400,341,040 | 14 / 23 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.12 | $7,417,768,208 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.12 | $7,417,768,208 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.12 | $7,417,768,208 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.12 | $7,417,768,208 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.12 | $7,417,768,208 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.12 | $7,417,768,208 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.10 | $7,429,654,762 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.10 | $7,449,490,717 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.10 | $7,454,417,308 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.10 | $7,452,964,381 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.10 | $7,452,964,381 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.10 | $7,452,964,381 | 9 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.10 | $7,452,964,381 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.10 | $7,452,964,381 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.10 | $7,452,964,381 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.04 | $7,530,686,340 | 8 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.97 | $7,555,995,926 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.95 | $7,558,276,089 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.95 | $7,555,392,393 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.95 | $7,555,392,393 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.95 | $7,556,021,201 | 8 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.95 | $7,556,021,201 | 8 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.