Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.34+3.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.07 → 2.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Committed growth capital stays between $270 million and $300 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Excelerate Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 270 to 300 million USD. | Intact | Committed growth capital falls below $270 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $283.833M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 270 to 300 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026283,833,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EE is a growth-oriented energy business with a sector tailwind, rather than a proven steady compounder. Its multi-year view is intact, with recent signals mildly favorable, but the evidence is mixed and confidence is medium.
EE is expensive versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear ahead of what the evidence supports. The pricing signal is still considered justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not show a broader mismatch beyond a turbulent sector backdrop.
Near term, operating income has been stable across the first two quarters of 2026, and committed growth capital guidance has increased. The Iraq LNG terminal remains a priority, but conflict-related delays have pushed expected startup to early Q2 2027. Recent results include two misses followed by an August beat, so earnings execution remains a risk despite the recent improvement.
The multi-year thesis depends on growth spending translating into operating progress and on the delayed Iraq terminal advancing without further setbacks. Near term, a reversal of the recently raised guidance would hurt management credibility, while continued strength or weakness from sector bellwethers ENB, WMB, and KMI could reinforce or weaken the energy-sector tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, EE has a still-intact growth thesis supported by stable operating income and a favorable sector backdrop, but execution risk and expensive valuation temper the picture. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Committed growth capital guidance has increased and is now expected to range between $400 million and $410 million for the full year.” “The increase is related to timing of spend for the FSRU conversion project.”
Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026Maintenance capital spending remains between $100 million and $110 million in 2026 | Maintenance capital spending is steady at $100-$110M. | Broken | Maintenance capex falls below $100 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income grows to at least $81.9 million in 2026-Q1 | Excelerate Energy is growing its operating income from $70.4M to $81.9M recently. | Intact | Operating income falls below $70 million in any quarter | Operating income: $80.896M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=81.9 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202680,896,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.94 → $2.06 · observed estimates
$1.87B → $1.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.94 | $1,868,726,661 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.90 | $1,869,237,280 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.90 | $1,869,237,280 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.90 | $1,869,237,280 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.90 | $1,869,237,280 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.90 | $1,869,237,280 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.90 | $1,869,237,280 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.90 | $1,869,237,280 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.98 | $1,876,584,650 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.01 | $1,822,221,760 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.02 | $1,816,466,210 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.95 | $1,868,726,661 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.07 | $1,935,888,429 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.07 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.06 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.06 | $1,935,578,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.06 | $1,944,289,652 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.06 | $1,944,289,652 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.06 | $1,944,289,652 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.06 | $1,944,289,652 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.06 | $1,944,289,652 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.06 | $1,944,289,652 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.06 | $1,981,956,318 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.06 | $1,981,956,318 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.06 | $1,981,956,318 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.06 | $1,981,956,318 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.06 | $1,981,956,318 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.06 | $1,981,956,318 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.06 | $1,981,956,318 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.