Emerald Holding, Inc. (EEX)
NYSECommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.040.00%
Close 2026-07-14 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EEX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 79.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EEX — M&A activity — Change in Control of Registrant
Dated 2026-07-14
Change in Control of Registrant. The information set forth in the Introductory Note and under Items 2.01 and 5.02 of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated herein by reference into this
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue goal shows strong business growth after the merger. It shows good integration.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported within the guidance range of $490-$495 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue is below $490 million. This shows problems with integration.
Why it matters: This was a stated 2026 goal. A result in range would confirm the planned earnings level.
Supportive ifThe 2026 report shows Adjusted EBITDA from $137.5M to $142.5M.
Worry ifThe 2026 report shows Adjusted EBITDA below $137.5M.
Why it matters: The sector read flags a drop below median revenue growth as a key change. That would weaken the growth case for the combined business.
Worry ifReported revenue growth falls below the sector's median.
Less concerning ifReported revenue growth stays at or above the sector's median.
Why it matters: Emerald aims for $490-$495 million in revenue. Meeting this target shows strong growth and execution.
Supportive ifEmerald confirms revenue guidance remains on track during the next earnings call.
Worry ifRevenue guidance is lowered. This shows possible problems in operations.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$43 on $10,000 · ±0.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $488 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,354 loss on $10,000 · 33.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Emerald set 2026 revenue guidance of $490 million to $495 million. Results against that range are a clear test of the stated growth goal.
Watch forA company update reports 2026 revenue of at least $490 million.
Also watch forA company update reports 2026 revenue below $490 million or lowers the guidance range.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue could mean a recovery for Emerald.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: This was a stated 2026 goal. A result in range would show the business met that target.
Supportive ifThe 2026 report shows revenue from $490M to $495M.
Worry ifThe 2026 report shows revenue below $490M.
Why it matters: The merger is key to creating a larger B2B events platform. It can drive growth and enhance capabilities.
Supportive ifThe merger is completed and fully integrated by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe merger may be delayed. Regulatory issues could push completion past Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Approvals are key for the merger to move forward. Delays may hurt Emerald's plans.
Worry ifAll needed approvals for the merger are given.
Less concerning ifRegulators worry about the merger. They may deny approval.
Why it matters: The merger is key to creating a larger B2B events platform. It will enhance growth opportunities and market reach.
Supportive ifThe merger is completed and fully integrated by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe merger may be delayed. Regulatory issues could push completion past 2026.
Why it matters: The merger will create a larger B2B events platform. This could lead to better growth opportunities.
Supportive ifThe merger with Apollo is done. It is fully integrated as planned.
Worry ifThe merger has delays. There are regulatory issues that slow down completion.
Why it matters: The 2026 target is $137.5 million to $142.5 million in adjusted EBITDA. The combined business will need to report progress against that range.
Watch forA company update says 2026 adjusted EBITDA will be at least $137.5 million.
Also watch forA company update says 2026 adjusted EBITDA will be below $137.5 million or cuts the guidance range.
Why it matters: Hitting this EBITDA target shows good cost management. It also shows efficiency after the merger.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 is reported at $35 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 falls below $30 million.
Why it matters: The companies said they would be fully integrated over the coming months. A clear completion update would mark progress on the merger plan.
Supportive ifThe company says Emerald and Questex are fully joined.
Worry ifThe company says full integration is delayed or key steps are still incomplete.
Why it matters: Emerald aims for $490-$495 million in revenue. Meeting this target shows strong operational performance.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue guidance will not change in future updates.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance to less than $490 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows strong growth momentum post-merger. It confirms the combined company's strength.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $155 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $150 million.
Why it matters: Strong EBITDA results show progress toward making money and being efficient. This shows the merger is working.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds the guidance of $137.5-$142.5 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $137.5 million in Q3 2026.