Emerald Holding, Inc. (EEX)
NYSECommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.040.00%
Close 2026-07-14 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EEX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 79.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EEX — M&A activity — Change in Control of Registrant
Dated 2026-07-14
Change in Control of Registrant. The information set forth in the Introductory Note and under Items 2.01 and 5.02 of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated herein by reference into this
Why it matters: Growth in revenue could mean a recovery for Emerald.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance shows the company is on track for growth. It reflects management's confidence.
Supportive ifManagement expects full-year revenue of $490-$495 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue forecast to less than $490 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The merger is key to creating a larger B2B events platform. It can drive growth and enhance capabilities.
Supportive ifThe merger is completed and fully integrated by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe merger may be delayed. Regulatory issues could push completion past Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Approvals are key for the merger to move forward. Delays may hurt Emerald's plans.
Worry ifAll needed approvals for the merger are given.
Less concerning ifRegulators worry about the merger. They may deny approval.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$43 on $10,000 · ±0.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $415 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,618 loss on $10,000 · 36.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The merger is key to creating a larger B2B events platform. It will help Emerald grow and innovate.
Supportive ifThe merger is done. The new company starts operations smoothly.
Worry ifThe merger has delays or problems. These issues push back when it will finish.
Why it matters: Emerald aims for $490-$495 million in revenue. Meeting this target shows strong operational performance.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue guidance will not change in future updates.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance to less than $490 million.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target would show Emerald is on track to achieve its annual goals.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue is reported at or above $155 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue falls below $150 million.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA results will show progress toward making money. It is a key measure of financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 meets or exceeds the guidance of $137.5-$142.5 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $137.5 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The merger is key for creating a larger B2B events platform. It could drive growth and value for Emerald.
Supportive ifThe merger is done. The new company will be fully running by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe merger has delays or regulatory problems. This pushes completion past Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue goal shows strong business growth after the merger. It shows good integration.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported within the guidance range of $490-$495 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue is below $490 million. This shows problems with integration.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows better profits and good cost control after the merger.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is between $137.5 million and $142.5 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $137.5 million. This suggests ongoing profit problems.