ENERGY FOCUS INC (EFOI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.85+0.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFurnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EFOI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 237.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 56.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 181.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EFOI — private placement
Dated 2026-06-03
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement . On May 29, 2026 , Energy Focus, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”) entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Euka Power Japan Co., Ltd. (the “Purchaser”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell in a private placement (the “Private Placement”) an aggregate of 65,789 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), for a purchase price p…
Why it matters: Better operating income shows progress in managing costs and growing revenue. This builds trust.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is better than -$141,000.
Worry ifOperating income worsens or remains at -$141,000 or worse.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow from operations is key for Energy Focus to grow and stay strong.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $69,000 in Q2.
Worry ifIf cash from operations drops below $69,000, there may be money problems.
Why it matters: Sales growth is important. It shows that the company’s expansion plans in military and commercial markets are working.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales exceed $3.7 million, showing growth from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 net sales fall below $3.7 million, indicating a slowdown.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth shows the sector may be improving. This can help investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifRevenue growth is now positive. This means the sector is recovering.
Worry ifRevenue growth is still negative. This confirms the sector is still declining.
Why it matters: A higher gross profit margin means better cost control and sales.
Supportive ifGross profit margin exceeds 25% in a future quarter.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 23% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A higher gross profit margin shows better cost control and sales. This helps profits.
Supportive ifQ2 gross profit margin exceeds 23.3%, showing improvement from Q1.
Worry ifIf gross profit margin drops or stays below 23.3%, costs are still high.
Why it matters: Achieving Commercial Operation Date (COD) will generate revenue and cash flow. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifThe Asakura project reaches COD in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifThe Asakura project delays COD beyond 2026.
Why it matters: A bigger loss shows trouble with expenses and may affect future funding.
Worry ifOperating loss exceeds $1 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating loss remains below $1 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting this sales number would show strong demand and market growth.
Supportive ifNet sales surpass $1 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet sales remain below $0.9 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher inventory reserves have hurt margins. Monitoring this will show if the company can manage costs better.
Worry ifGross margin improves to above -6.8% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGross margin worsens further, falling below -6.8% in Q3.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is key. It helps the company keep running and support growth.
Supportive ifNet cash from operations becomes positive in Q3.
Worry ifNet cash from operations stays negative in Q3.
Why it matters: Success in this project could change Energy Focus's revenue and market presence a lot.
Supportive ifThe project reaches Commercial Operation Date (COD) in the second half of 2026.
Worry ifThe project may face delays or regulatory issues. This could push COD past 2026.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$262 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $707 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,824 loss on $10,000 · 58.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.