Enterprise Financial Services Corp. (EFSC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$64.66+0.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EFSC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
EFSC — officer change
Dated 2026-08-20
Director — Sandra A. Van Trease: A director resigned from the board and committees, but the filing explicitly states there was no disagreement with management, indicating an orderly departure rather than a negative shock.
Why it matters: Maintaining net income above $50M shows the company is managing profits well. This supports the goal of stable revenue and profitability.
Supportive ifQ2 net income reported above $50M.
Worry ifQ2 net income falls below $50M.
Why it matters: Active stock buybacks can help share price. They also show management's confidence in the company.
Supportive ifCompany repurchases at least 2 million shares by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo significant share repurchases occur by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in NIM means better profits. It also helps management focus on capital efficiency.
Supportive ifNIM for Q3 2026 is over 4.30%. This shows good margin management.
Worry ifNIM for Q3 2026 is under 4.30%. This suggests possible profit issues.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans raise worries about credit quality. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifNonperforming loans/loans ratio is over 0.64%. This shows asset quality is getting worse.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans/loans ratio drops below 0.64%. This shows good credit management.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$77 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $191 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,513 loss on $10,000 · 15.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Loan growth is key. It helps make more money and stay competitive.
Supportive ifTotal loans increase to $12 billion or more in Q3.
Worry ifTotal loans decline or stagnate below $11.9 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader economic issues. This affects EFSC's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: If net income goes up, it shows recovery from recent losses. Investors want to see more profit.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $40.9 million, showing growth from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 net income is still below $40.9 million. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: A drop in net income could mean bigger problems. Investors may worry about earnings.
Worry ifQ3 net income is below $40 million. This shows ongoing profitability issues.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income is stable or above $40 million. This suggests a recovery.
Why it matters: This shows better management of credit risk and asset quality.
Supportive ifAllowance for credit losses to total loans goes above 1.20%.
Worry ifAllowance for credit losses to total loans falls below 1.17%.
Why it matters: Successful integration of the new debt could enhance capital efficiency. This is key for future growth and stability.
Watch forDebt issuance leads to improved capital ratios or net interest margin in Q3.
Also watch forDebt issuance results in higher costs or no improvement in capital ratios.
Why it matters: A drop in deposits might mean liquidity problems. This could affect lending. It is important for future growth.
Worry ifTotal deposits decrease more than $21.8 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits rise or stay steady in Q3. This shows stronger customer loyalty.
Why it matters: Sector revenue trends will impact EFSC's performance and growth outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth drops below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on capital use will show how well the company manages the new debt.
Watch forManagement announces a new investment or project that the debt will fund.
Also watch forNo news on capital use or new projects after the debt is issued.
Why it matters: Growing or steady noninterest income means better revenue. This helps with long-term profit.
Supportive ifNoninterest income is over $13.5 million in Q3.
Worry ifNoninterest income falls below $13.5 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Net income trends will show if the new debt helps keep profits steady.
Supportive ifNet income rises above $55M in the next quarter after the debt issuance.
Worry ifNet income falls below $45M in the next quarter after the debt issuance.
Why it matters: Higher charge-offs might mean worse asset quality. This could hurt future profits. Investors will watch this closely.
Worry ifNet charge-offs reported above $14.2 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are below $14.2 million for Q3. This suggests better asset quality.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is making more money after a miss.
Watch forEarnings per share is over $1.09. This shows a recovery in making money.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $1.09, confirming ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Updates on capital use will show the impact of the recent debt issuance.
Watch forManagement will share plans for using the $175 million from the debt issuance.
Also watch forNo clear strategy is communicated for the use of the new capital.