Equifax (EFX)
NYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$177.05-6.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EFX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
EFX — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-29
Other Events. Public Offering of Senior Notes On July 22, 2026, Equifax Inc. (the “Company”) executed an Underwriting Agreement with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., Truist Securities, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as the representatives of the underwriters named therein (the “Underwriting Agreement”), with regard to the issuance and sale by the Company of $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.000% Senior Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”) and $50…
Why it matters: Better sector performance could help Equifax grow and reach revenue goals.
Supportive ifSector growth speeds up to nearly 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher cash returns show strong free cash flow. This means good capital allocation.
Supportive ifEquifax returns more than $360 million to shareholders in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash returned to shareholders is less than $300 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Doubling the cost cut target to $150 million shows management cares about saving money. These updates may change profits.
Supportive ifManagement says they are making progress on the $150 million cost cut target.
Worry ifManagement has lowered the target for cost cuts.
Why it matters: A good surprise would show better performance and help revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings exceed analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ2 earnings are lower than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: Completing this change is important. It helps with how money is used and gives more flexibility.
Supportive ifThe credit agreement change is now complete.
Worry ifNo announcement of completion by the next earnings date.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to maintaining the 2026 revenue growth guidance. It shows if the company is on track.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth meets or exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The Vitality Index shows new product ideas. It can hint at future growth.
Supportive ifVitality Index goes above 17% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifVitality Index falls below 13% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue guidance show how management sees the market.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue guidance is raised above $6.805 billion.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 revenue guidance is cut to below $6.685 billion.
Why it matters: Equifax keeps its revenue growth guidance. This shows it can handle market challenges. It shows confidence in future performance.
Supportive ifEquifax maintains Q2 2026 revenue growth guidance of 9.3% to 11.3%.
Worry ifEquifax lowers Q2 2026 revenue growth guidance below 9.3%.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of Equifax's ability to maintain momentum. A drop below this level may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 2026 reported revenue growth below 8.7%.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 revenue growth meets or exceeds 8.7%.
Why it matters: Closing this deal is crucial for expanding Equifax's footprint in Mexico. It could enhance growth prospects in Latin America.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close by Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe announcement about the acquisition may be late or called off.
Why it matters: Mortgage revenue is a significant part of Equifax's business. A drop below this level could indicate market weakness.
Worry ifU.S. Mortgage revenue growth reported below 20%.
Less concerning ifU.S. Mortgage revenue growth remains at or above 20%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $439 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,179 loss on $10,000 · 41.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.