Equifax (EFX)
NYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$193.84+0.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EFX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 15.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EFX — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-29
Other Events. Public Offering of Senior Notes On July 22, 2026, Equifax Inc. (the “Company”) executed an Underwriting Agreement with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., Truist Securities, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as the representatives of the underwriters named therein (the “Underwriting Agreement”), with regard to the issuance and sale by the Company of $500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of the Company’s 5.000% Senior Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”) and $50…
Why it matters: The index measures new product revenue. Management's long-term goal is 10%, and a strong result supports its product growth plan.
Supportive ifThe new product Vitality Index stays above 10% in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifThe index falls to 10% or lower in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Management said the weak U.S. mortgage market would last through 2026. Lower mortgage revenue already cut its full-year sales outlook.
Worry ifQ4 U.S. Mortgage revenue is below Q3 2026, when Workforce Solutions Mortgage revenue was flat year over year and USIS Mortgage revenue rose 28%.
Less concerning ifQ4 U.S. Mortgage revenue grows year over year in both Workforce Solutions and USIS.
Why it matters: Equifax aims to cut costs by $150 million from 2026 to 2028 using AI. Reported savings would show progress on this goal.
Supportive ifEquifax reports at least $150 million in AI-driven cost savings for 2026 to 2028.
Worry ifEquifax reports that AI-driven cost savings by the end of 2028 are below $150 million.
Why it matters: The new full-year revenue range is $6.646 billion to $6.676 billion. A miss would show that weak mortgage demand hurt sales more than planned.
Worry ifReported FY 2026 revenue is below $6.646 billion, the low end of the October guidance range.
Less concerning ifReported FY 2026 revenue reaches or exceeds $6.646 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $431 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,937 loss on $10,000 · 39.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The deal adds a credit bureau in Mexico. A timely close would mark progress on Equifax's bolt-on acquisition plan.
Supportive ifEquifax confirms it closed the Círculo de Crédito acquisition in Q4 2026.
Worry ifEquifax reports that the deal did not close in Q4 or that the agreement ended.