Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.38-0.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.38 → 0.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EGY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain CAPEX excluding acquisitions between $290M and $360M in FY26 | Capital spending is planned to stay steady between $290M and $360M. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $360M or falls below $290M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Through the remainder of the Phase Three Drilling Program, the objective is to continue growing production volumes and adding proved reserves through the successful execution of Vaalco’s development program.” “The Company is continuing with its drilling program in Egypt in the third quarter of 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk energy producer with a growth-and-execution thesis, not a proven earnings compounder. Management has made progress on production growth and the Baobab restart, but recent financial performance remains weak and the long-term thesis is still being tested.
EGY is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting market expectations are already cautious. The priced-in assessment is justified rather than broadly fragile, though the turbulent sector backdrop remains a source of risk.
Near term, three recent earnings misses and an elevated risk of another miss point to continued earnings uncertainty. Over the multi-year view, higher production and sales guidance and the Baobab restart support growth, while management has kept its capital budget guidance in place.
The thesis depends on production growth continuing and the Baobab drilling campaign adding output as expected into 2027. Near term, a guidance cut would add pressure; continued strength from energy-sector peers could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
The 1-to-3-year view is a watch-stage growth thesis with real operational progress, but weak results and elevated execution risk remain central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Increase production and sales NRI volumes by 8% and 12% in FY26 | VAALCO Energy is restarting production and increasing sales volumes. | Intact | production growth or sales growth falls below 8% or 12% respectively in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Through the remainder of the Phase Three Drilling Program, the objective is to continue growing production volumes and adding proved reserves through the successful execution of Vaalco’s development program.” “The Company is continuing with its drilling program in Egypt in the third quarter of 2026.” Revenue was $135.166 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Q2 2026 sales volumes between 16,800 and 18,300 NRI BOPD | VAALCO Energy is restarting production and increasing sales volumes. | Intact | Q2 sales volumes fall below 16,800 NRI BOPD | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.76 → $0.35 · observed estimates
$0.50B → $0.51B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.76 | $501,489,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.34 | $501,489,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.76 | $501,489,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.34 | $501,489,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.76 | $501,489,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.76 | $501,489,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.34 | $501,489,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.34 | $501,489,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.76 | $501,489,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.34 | $501,489,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.34 | $501,489,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.76 | $501,489,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.34 | $501,489,800 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.76 | $501,489,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.41 | $501,329,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.00 | $501,260,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.00 | $501,260,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.00 | $501,260,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.41 | $501,329,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.41 | $501,329,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.26 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.41 | $501,329,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.41 | $501,329,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.41 | $501,329,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.41 | $501,329,800 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.41 | $501,329,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.41 | $501,329,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.36 | $502,060,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.36 | $501,660,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.36 | $501,660,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.36 | $501,660,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.36 | $501,728,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.36 | $501,728,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.36 | $501,728,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.36 | $501,728,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.36 | $501,728,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.36 | $501,728,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.36 | $501,728,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.36 | $501,728,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.36 | $501,728,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.36 | $501,728,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.38 | $511,928,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.38 | $511,928,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.38 | $511,928,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.38 | $511,928,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.38 | $511,928,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.38 | $511,928,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.38 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.35 | $511,932,300 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.