VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.00-0.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EGY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 31.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 41.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EGY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, VAALCO Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter of 2026 and guidance for the third quarter of 2026 and the remainder of 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. Presentation slides accompanying this earnings release are available on the Company’s website at www.vaalco.com located on the “Present…
Why it matters: A successful restart would show that the upgrades worked. It would also raise production levels.
Supportive ifProduction from the Baobab field resumes as planned in Q2 2026.
Worry ifProduction at the Baobab field does not restart as scheduled.
Why it matters: More sales mean strong demand. It also shows that operations are doing well right now.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 sales volumes reported at or above 18,900 NRI BOPD.
Worry ifQ3 2026 sales volumes fall below 17,200 NRI BOPD.
Why it matters: Finishing this campaign is important. It will help boost production and reserves in Gabon.
Supportive ifGabon drilling campaign completed as scheduled by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifDrilling campaign is delayed or not completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher Adjusted EBITDAX means strong cash flow and profit. It shows good cost control.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, Adjusted EBITDAX was over $54.8 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDAX is less than $54.8 million.
Why it matters: Finishing the Kossipo development plan is important for future growth. It shows progress.
Supportive ifKossipo field development plan completed by the end of 2026.
Worry ifKossipo field development plan is delayed beyond 2026.
Why it matters: This lifting is crucial for revenue from the Baobab field. It confirms production ramp-up.
Supportive ifSuccessful completion of the first crude oil lifting from Côted'Ivoire in August 2026.
Worry ifNo lifting occurs in August 2026 as planned.
Why it matters: More production and sales volumes are key for growth. This shows better performance.
Supportive ifManagement says production and sales NRI volumes have grown a lot.
Worry ifManagement reports a drop or no change in production and sales NRI volumes.
Why it matters: Stable CAPEX shows management is controlling costs and investing wisely. It impacts future growth.
Supportive ifCAPEX is at or below current levels without new acquisitions.
Worry ifCAPEX rises a lot beyond current levels.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows that production is still growing. This supports the management's plan.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 production volumes reported within the range of 19,600 to 21,600 NRI BOPD.
Worry ifQ3 2026 production volumes fall below 19,600 NRI BOPD.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$159 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $410 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,528 loss on $10,000 · 25.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.