VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.38-0.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EGY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 39.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers
EGY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 7, 2026, VAALCO Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing certain operational results for the third quarter of 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exch…
Why it matters: The first new Baobab producer is a near-term test of the drilling plan. More output could support the planned 2027 growth.
Supportive ifVaalco reports its first Phase 5 producer online by December 31, 2026. It also gives the initial production rate.
Worry ifThe first producer is not online by December 31, 2026, or Vaalco reports a delay to the drilling plan.
Why it matters: Vaalco's Q3 ranges test whether higher output and sales continued after Baobab restarted. The next earnings date is November 5, 2026.
Watch forOn November 5, Vaalco reports Q3 production of 19,600–21,600 NRI BOEPD and sales of 17,200–18,900 NRI BOPD, or above those ranges.
Also watch forOn November 5, Vaalco reports Q3 production below 19,600 NRI BOEPD or sales below 17,200 NRI BOPD.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$149 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $410 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,528 loss on $10,000 · 25.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.