Estée Lauder Companies (The) (EL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$103.86+2.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $104 EL trades at 41× p/e — 2.5× the 17× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $63 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $80–$120. Note: our $63 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($80–$120). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $98.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $169.31 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $23.44 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $24.25 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$80.00 – $120.00 (median $98.50) · 20 analysts · as of 2026-08-25
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.98/sh free cash flow.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $54.25 |
| 16.8 |
| 3.23 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $55.23 | 11.7 | 4.12 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $57.30 | 15.9 | 3.60 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $51.78 | 15.8 | 3.28 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $35.15 | 0.9 | 41.19 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $102.64 | 33.7 | 3.05 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $16.65 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $46.76 | 16.8 | 2.78 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $114.03 | 16.8 | 6.78 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $76.68 | 15.8 | 4.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $40.27 | 0.9 | 47.19 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $163.51 | 33.7 | 4.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $187.13 | 16.8 | 11.13 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $82.94 | 15.8 | 5.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $43.56 | 0.9 | 51.04 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $176.85 | 33.7 | 5.25 | Analyst | medium |