Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Estée Lauder Companies (The) (EL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$107.65-3.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.94 → 4.04 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted operating margin near 15% | A primary condition in Estée Lauder Companies (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is ~15% margin. | Improving | adjusted operating margin falls below 10% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Full-year adjusted operating margin expansion of 320 basis points in fiscal 2026, with expansion of nearly 300 basis points or more in each quarter Actions under the Company’s PRGP are still expected to be substantially completed in fiscal 2027, with a vast majority of the full run-rate benefits still expected to be realized during fiscal 2027.” “In addition, we are raising our outlook for an even stronger adjusted operating margin, as we double down on our strengths to further diversify growth across product categories and geographies, including accelerating growth in North America.”” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a recovery and operational-improvement story in Consumer Staples, supported by a sector tailwind. The thesis is on watch: recent sales and margin progress is encouraging, but earnings quality is still loss-making and business performance remains below its industry cohort.
EL is expensive versus peers, with a 2.69 premium measure, while the expectations gap is 0.62; confidence in that assessment is low. The valuation measure recently fell from 41.6 to 30.0, but the evidence still characterizes valuation as expensive and the pricing tag as unjustified.
Near term, organic sales growth has improved from an 8% decline in 2025-Q4 to 5% growth in 2026-Q4, while adjusted operating margin rose to 11.2%; management also raised fiscal 2027 margin guidance. The PRGP has delivered reported gross benefits and management remains on track with the plan, though a guidance reversal would damage credibility, and weakening employment or recent peer misses add risk.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining organic sales growth, expanding margins, and continuing PRGP execution without reversing recently raised guidance. Strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could support the backdrop, while weaker jobs data could increase recession concerns for cyclical businesses.
For the 1-to-3-year view, EL has tangible signs of operational recovery, but its expensive valuation and elevated risks leave the thesis mixed and dependent on continued execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Capital expenditures below $1.7 billion | A supporting condition in Estée Lauder Companies (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is <= $1.7B. | Intact | capital expenditures exceed $1.7B in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Full-year adjusted operating margin expansion of 320 basis points in fiscal 2026, with expansion of nearly 300 basis points or more in each quarter Actions under the Company’s PRGP are still expected to be substantially completed in fiscal 2027, with a vast majority of the full run-rate benefits still expected to be realized during fiscal 2027.” “The restructuring program is expected to yield annual gross benefits of approximately $1.2 billion, at the high-end of the previously announced range of between $1.0 billion and $1.2 billion, before taxes, to help restore operating margin, offset inflation and fuel increased reinvestments in consumer-facing areas to drive sustainable sales growth.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Free cash flow above $800 million | The company is cutting costs and boosting free cash flow to nearly $900 million. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $600M next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Full-year adjusted operating margin expansion of 320 basis points in fiscal 2026, with expansion of nearly 300 basis points or more in each quarter Actions under the Company’s PRGP are still expected to be substantially completed in fiscal 2027, with a vast majority of the full run-rate benefits still expected to be realized during fiscal 2027.” “The restructuring program is expected to yield annual gross benefits of approximately $1.2 billion, at the high-end of the previously announced range of between $1.0 billion and $1.2 billion, before taxes, to help restore operating margin, offset inflation and fuel increased reinvestments in consumer-facing areas to drive sustainable sales growth.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Organic sales growth of at least 3% YoY | A primary condition in Estée Lauder Companies (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=3% YoY. | Intact | organic sales growth falls below 2% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In addition, we are raising our outlook for an even stronger adjusted operating margin, as we double down on our strengths to further diversify growth across product categories and geographies, including accelerating growth in North America.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.84 → $4.04 · observed estimates
$16.23B → $16.55B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.84 | $16,226,968,550 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.84 | $16,226,968,550 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.83 | $16,232,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.83 | $16,232,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.83 | $16,232,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.83 | $16,229,708,021 | 10 / 19 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.89 | $16,363,100,690 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.93 | $16,389,596,871 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.94 | $16,405,843,449 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.94 | $16,405,843,449 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.94 | $16,405,843,449 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.94 | $16,405,843,449 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.94 | $16,410,415,321 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.94 | $16,410,415,321 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.94 | $16,410,415,321 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.94 | $16,410,415,321 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.94 | $16,410,415,321 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.94 | $16,416,701,666 | 16 / 19 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.94 | $16,416,701,666 | 16 / 20 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.94 | $16,416,701,666 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.94 | $16,416,701,666 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.94 | $16,416,701,666 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.94 | $16,416,701,666 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.94 | $16,416,701,666 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.94 | $16,416,701,666 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.94 | $16,416,701,666 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.94 | $16,416,701,666 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.94 | $16,416,701,666 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.94 | $16,412,357,766 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.94 | $16,412,357,766 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.94 | $16,420,460,276 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.94 | $16,415,608,044 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.94 | $16,415,608,044 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.94 | $16,415,608,044 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.94 | $16,415,608,044 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.94 | $16,415,608,044 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.95 | $16,415,625,270 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.95 | $16,415,625,270 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.95 | $16,415,625,270 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.94 | $16,417,227,682 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.94 | $16,417,227,682 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.94 | $16,417,227,682 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.94 | $16,417,227,682 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.94 | $16,417,227,682 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.94 | $16,417,227,682 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.94 | $16,417,227,682 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.94 | $16,424,153,482 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.94 | $16,424,153,482 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.94 | $16,424,595,296 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.94 | $16,424,595,296 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.94 | $16,421,511,962 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.94 | $16,421,687,774 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.94 | $16,421,687,774 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.94 | $16,421,687,774 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.94 | $16,421,687,774 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.94 | $16,422,071,108 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.94 | $16,422,071,108 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.94 | $16,422,071,108 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.94 | $16,421,823,446 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.94 | $16,421,823,446 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.94 | $16,421,823,446 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.94 | $16,421,823,446 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.94 | $16,421,823,446 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.94 | $16,421,823,446 | 18 / 21 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.00 | $16,510,117,844 | 17 / 21 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.04 | $16,554,421,729 | 18 / 21 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 13 recorded
6 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.