Estée Lauder Companies (The) (EL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$103.86+2.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 65.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 60.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers
EL — director transition
Dated 2026-07-24
Director — Jennifer Hyman: Ms. Hyman is retiring from the Board to shift her focus to new endeavors.
Why it matters: This plan aims to rebuild profit margins. Progress signals better cost management.
Supportive ifManagement says profit margins are better because of the plan.
Worry ifManagement says profit margins are still going down.
Why it matters: If growth is over 3%, it shows management is meeting their sales goals. This means strong demand and good strategy execution.
Supportive ifOrganic sales growth reported above 3% for Q1.
Worry ifOrganic sales growth reported below 3% for Q1.
Why it matters: Progress on PRGP is key for better margins and efficiency.
Watch forManagement says they reached important goals in PRGP.
Also watch forManagement reports delays or issues in PRGP.
Why it matters: If growth is over 12.5%, it shows better margins and good cost control. This is a good sign for profits.
Supportive ifThe adjusted operating margin was over 12.5% for Q1.
Worry ifThe adjusted operating margin was below 12.5% for Q1.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $371 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,361 loss on $10,000 · 43.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A confirmed merger would significantly change Estée Lauder's market position and growth strategy. It could lead to new opportunities and risks.
Watch forThere is a signed agreement or announcement about the merger with Puig.
Also watch forThere is confirmation that talks ended without a merger agreement.
Why it matters: Tariff refunds can change gross margins a lot. Good results would help profit goals.
Supportive ifTariff refunds contribute over $50 million to gross margin in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifTariff refunds contribute less than $20 million to gross margin in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Operating margin is key for making money. A rise means management is doing well.
Supportive ifOperating margin is above 13.5% in 2027.
Worry ifOperating margin is below 12.7% in 2027.
Why it matters: New products can drive sales growth and enhance brand positioning.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new product launches that align with current beauty trends.
Worry ifNo new product launches announced in Q2.
Why it matters: If growth is over 5%, it shows strong demand and good execution of the strategy. This would increase investor confidence.
Supportive ifNet sales growth reported above 5% for Q1.
Worry ifNet sales growth reported below 5% for Q1.
Why it matters: Management expects 3% to 5% growth. This shows confidence in recovery.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 organic sales growth confirmed at or above 3%.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 organic sales growth guidance is now below 3%.