Estée Lauder Companies (The) (EL)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$107.65-3.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 66.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EL — litigation filed
Dated 2026-11-04
Regulation FD Disclosure On November 4, 2026, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (the “Company”) webcast presentations (https://www.elcompanies.com/investors/events-and-presentations) from its Capital Markets Experience: China Ecosystem Immersion event in Shanghai, China. During this event, the Company announced its fiscal 2030 ambition and discussed its long-term strategy to drive sustainable growth and strong profitability. Exhibit 99.1 through Exhibit 99.10 contain the Company’s press release…
Why it matters: EL says savings from its cost plan fund spending on ads, stores, and selling. That spending rose 7% in fiscal 2026.
Supportive ifEL reports that consumer spending rose from a year earlier. Adjusted margin was at least 12.7% in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifEL reports that consumer spending fell from a year earlier, or adjusted margin was under 12.7% in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: EL named growth in North America as a focus and reported share gains in China. Sales growth across both would show its plan is reaching key markets.
Supportive ifEL reports sales growth in both Mainland China and North America in a fiscal 2027 quarter.
Worry ifEL reports lower sales in both Mainland China and North America in a fiscal 2027 quarter.
Why it matters: EL confirmed talks about a possible business combination, but no deal had been reached. A signed deal would change the company’s plans and risks.
Watch forEL and Puig announce a signed deal to combine their businesses, with terms stated.
Also watch forEL or Puig states that talks ended, or EL reports no signed deal by its next earnings update.
Why it matters: EL ended fiscal 2026 with 5% growth in the fourth quarter. Its fiscal 2027 outlook calls for 3% to 5% growth.
Supportive ifA fiscal 2027 quarter reports organic sales growth above 3% year over year.
Worry ifA fiscal 2027 quarter reports flat or falling organic sales year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $362 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,361 loss on $10,000 · 43.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.