Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Elanco (ELAN)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-05
$23.68-6.44%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.28 → 1.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ELAN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase operating income through cost management | Profit improves with operating income rising from $60 million to $87 million. | Improving | Operating income falls below $60 million in FY26-Q1 | Operating income: $109M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $87 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026109,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ELAN is a growth-and-execution story with improving cash flow and lower debt, rather than a turnaround. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and progress on management’s stated priorities, though recent financial performance is rated neutral overall.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and a very small expectations gap in the evidence. That suggests the market already recognizes the business’s growth and execution progress, while the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified and has low fragility.
Near term, recent results show revenue growth, wider adjusted EBITDA margins, higher operating cash flow, and lower leverage, alongside raised 2026 revenue guidance. The main risk is a reversal in guidance, which could damage management credibility; the snapshot also notes that ELAN operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has had a deep miss in its recent history.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth, margin improvement, and progress toward the savings and cash-flow goals. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on the business outlook, while continued earnings strength from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
The multi-year view remains intact, with improving operating trends offset by an expensive valuation and risks around guidance and the wider economy. The evidence supports a cautiously constructive business read, with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash flow from operations turned positive, supporting growth and investments. |
| Improving |
| Cash flow from operations falls below $0 in FY26-Q1 |
Cash from operations: $277M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash flow from operations >= $13 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026277,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 5% to 7% organic constant currency revenue growth | A primary condition in Elanco's published investment case. The stated target is 5% to 7% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.20 → $1.27 · observed estimates
$5.34B → $5.41B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.20 | $5,338,921,951 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.20 | $5,325,075,800 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.20 | $5,325,075,800 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.20 | $5,325,075,800 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.20 | $5,325,075,800 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.20 | $5,338,921,951 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.20 | $5,320,466,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.20 | $5,320,466,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.20 | $5,334,312,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.20 | $5,320,466,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.20 | $5,334,312,314 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.20 | $5,320,466,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.20 | $5,320,466,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.20 | $5,320,466,160 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.23 | $5,375,611,493 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.25 | $5,369,183,480 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.25 | $5,369,183,480 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.23 | $5,375,611,493 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.23 | $5,375,611,493 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.26 | $5,394,080,300 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.23 | $5,375,611,493 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.23 | $5,375,611,493 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.23 | $5,375,611,493 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.23 | $5,375,611,493 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.23 | $5,375,611,493 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.23 | $5,375,611,493 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.23 | $5,375,611,493 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.26 | $5,401,495,473 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.26 | $5,401,495,473 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.27 | $5,401,495,473 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.27 | $5,401,495,473 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.27 | $5,401,495,473 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.27 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.28 | $5,404,572,396 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.28 | $5,402,356,429 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.28 | $5,402,357,770 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.28 | $5,402,357,770 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.28 | $5,402,357,770 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.28 | $5,402,357,770 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.28 | $5,402,357,770 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.28 | $5,418,751,259 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.28 | $5,418,751,259 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.28 | $5,418,751,259 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.28 | $5,417,776,260 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.28 | $5,417,776,260 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.28 | $5,417,776,260 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.28 | $5,417,776,260 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.28 | $5,417,776,260 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.28 | $5,417,776,260 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.28 | $5,417,776,260 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.27 | $5,416,333,932 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.27 | $5,416,333,932 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.27 | $5,416,333,932 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.27 | $5,414,917,265 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.27 | $5,414,917,265 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.27 | $5,414,917,265 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.27 | $5,414,917,265 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.27 | $5,414,917,265 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.27 | $5,414,917,265 | 9 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.