Elanco (ELAN)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.50+0.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ELAN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ELAN — restructuring
Dated 2025-12-09
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On December 5, 2025, the Board of Directors of Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (the “Company”) authorized a restructuring plan with respect to its workforce (the “Restructuring Plan”) to support margin expansion, optimize the Company’s footprint, and further invest in innovation. The Restructuring Plan will result in a global headcount reduction of approximately 300 employees, plus an approximate 300 employees whose positions will be replac…
Why it matters: A lower net leverage ratio means better financial health and more room for investments.
Supportive ifNet leverage ratio reported at or below 3.0x.
Worry ifNet leverage ratio was above 3.0x.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue growth continues. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 10% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below 5% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: Steady cash flow is important. It helps fund growth and pay down debt.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $250 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $200 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Growing market share shows that people like the product and are buying it.
Supportive ifCredelio Quattro achieves over 60% market share in U.S. vet clinics.
Worry ifCredelio Quattro market share declines or stagnates below 50% in U.S. vet clinics.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$162 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $415 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,623 loss on $10,000 · 26.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Elanco can maintain its growth momentum. A strong Q3 forecast would support ongoing investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance confirmed at $1,195 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance falls below $1,195 million.
Why it matters: This growth rate aligns with Elanco's guidance and shows strong demand for its products.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth of 5% or more year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income means Elanco is controlling costs well. This can help overall results.
Supportive ifOperating income is better than last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income is lower or the same as last quarter.
Why it matters: Faster sales show strong market demand. It also means products are being adopted well.
Supportive ifZenrelia sales growth accelerates beyond 20% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifZenrelia sales growth slows to below 15% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: This shows that Elanco's growth may be slowing. This could worry investors.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher margins show that costs are managed well. This means the company is efficient.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 21.5% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 21.0% in Q3.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the company is managing costs well. It can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to over $100M in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income drops back to negative in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Big changes in foreign exchange rates can change revenue growth expectations. This can affect overall performance.
Watch forRevenue growth increases by about $60 million due to good foreign exchange rates.
Also watch forRevenue growth goes down due to unfavorable foreign exchange rates.