Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$109.85-3.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.86 → 3.94 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ELF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS about $3.29 in fiscal 2027 | Earnings per share guidance is about $3.29 for fiscal 2027. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $3.05 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $1.12 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.29. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20261.12 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ELF is a growth-focused consumer business with a durable valuation premium, supported by expanding brands and rising sales. The long-term thesis is on track in management’s stated priorities, but the current thesis state is watch as recent performance trails its industry cohort.
ELF is expensive versus peers, with a valuation premium of about twice the peer level. The evidence labels that premium justified, but the expectations gap is negative and confidence in the valuation model is low, so the market appears to assume strong execution without much room for disappointment.
Near term, management’s priorities are on track: fiscal 2027 sales-growth guidance and adjusted net income guidance were raised, and recent results showed higher sales and adjusted earnings. However, recent financial performance is rated neutral, earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down, and risk is elevated.
The multi-year view depends on ELF sustaining sales growth, improving profitability, and expanding its brands and market presence. Near term, a guidance reversal after a recent raise could damage credibility, while weakening job growth could increase pressure on consumer-focused businesses; continued strength from major consumer staples companies would support the sector backdrop.
ELF has evidence of execution and brand expansion, but its expensive valuation leaves the thesis sensitive to weaker results or a guidance reversal over the next 1 to 3 years. The overall setup is mixed, with management priorities on track and risk elevated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company expands its market with new brands and channels. |
| Intact |
| Sales growth stalls or declines in key channels next year |
FY27 guidance +22-24% vs sustain growth target Earnings beat with 51% sales increase; FY27 guidance raised to 22-24% growth; rhode expanding in Sephora Europe. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Adjusted EBITDA grows at least 13% year over year | Profit rose with adjusted EBITDA up 13% to $335 million. | Under Pressure | EBITDA growth falls below 10% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net sales grow to about $1.85 billion in fiscal 2027 | Beauty grew sales 25% to $1.64 billion in fiscal 2026. | Intact | revenue falls below $1.63B in FY27 | Revenue: $479.373M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.85B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026479,373,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.66 → $3.94 · observed estimates
$2.00B → $2.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.66 | $2,000,542,409 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.67 | $1,998,667,430 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.67 | $1,998,667,430 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.66 | $2,000,543,296 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.67 | $1,998,667,430 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.66 | $2,001,543,296 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.67 | $1,999,726,260 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.67 | $1,999,726,260 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.66 | $2,001,543,296 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.67 | $1,999,726,260 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.66 | $2,001,543,318 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.68 | $2,000,287,430 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.66 | $2,001,543,318 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.69 | $2,006,463,900 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.82 | $2,112,572,086 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.84 | $2,117,313,600 | 16 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.84 | $2,116,835,360 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.82 | $2,112,572,086 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.82 | $2,112,572,086 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.84 | $2,123,317,720 | 17 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.82 | $2,112,572,086 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.82 | $2,112,572,086 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.82 | $2,112,572,086 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.82 | $2,112,572,086 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.82 | $2,112,572,086 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.82 | $2,112,572,086 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.82 | $2,112,572,086 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.82 | $2,124,869,338 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.82 | $2,124,894,290 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.82 | $2,124,894,290 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.82 | $2,124,894,290 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.82 | $2,124,894,290 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.82 | $2,124,894,290 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.82 | $2,124,894,290 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.82 | $2,124,894,290 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.82 | $2,124,894,290 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.82 | $2,124,894,290 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.82 | $2,124,894,290 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.82 | $2,124,894,290 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.84 | $2,128,731,760 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.84 | $2,128,731,760 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.84 | $2,128,731,760 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.84 | $2,128,731,760 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.85 | $2,133,787,406 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.85 | $2,133,787,406 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.85 | $2,133,787,406 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.85 | $2,133,787,406 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.85 | $2,133,787,406 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.85 | $2,133,787,406 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.85 | $2,133,787,406 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.85 | $2,133,787,406 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.85 | $2,133,787,406 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.85 | $2,133,787,406 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.85 | $2,133,787,406 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.85 | $2,133,777,690 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.86 | $2,138,095,337 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.86 | $2,138,095,337 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.86 | $2,138,095,337 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.86 | $2,138,095,337 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.86 | $2,138,895,278 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.86 | $2,138,895,278 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.86 | $2,138,895,278 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.86 | $2,138,895,278 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.86 | $2,138,895,278 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.86 | $2,138,895,278 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.86 | $2,138,895,278 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.86 | $2,138,895,278 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.86 | $2,138,895,278 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.86 | $2,138,895,278 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.88 | $2,149,456,436 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.88 | $2,149,456,436 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.88 | $2,149,462,319 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.88 | $2,149,462,319 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.88 | $2,149,462,319 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.89 | $2,153,217,405 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.90 | $2,157,514,170 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.90 | $2,157,514,170 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.90 | $2,157,514,170 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.90 | $2,157,514,170 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.90 | $2,157,514,170 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.90 | $2,157,514,170 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.90 | $2,157,514,170 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.90 | $2,157,514,170 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.90 | $2,157,514,170 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.94 | $2,160,390,640 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.94 | $2,160,390,640 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.94 | $2,160,390,640 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.94 | $2,160,390,640 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.94 | $2,160,390,640 | 11 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.