e.l.f. Beauty (ELF)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$109.67+2.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS about $3.29 in fiscal 2027: FY27 EPS guidance $3.50-$3.55 vs target ~$3.29.
e.l.f. Beauty grew sales 25% to $1.64 billion in fiscal 2026. Profit rose with adjusted EBITDA up 13% to $335 million. The company expands its market with new brands and channels. Earnings per share guidance is about $3.29 for fiscal 2027.
Profit growth is weak with net income down despite higher EBITDA. Global expansion risks the premium brand image. The company reversed price increases causing sales drops. Analysts cut earnings estimates recently.
The price is about 5% above our fair value near $72. Analysts expect 12% revenue growth but have cut earnings estimates recently.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $3.05 in FY27
Breaks if: Sales growth stalls or declines in key channels next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth and profitability. The current thesis state indicates a watchful approach due to mixed signals in recent performance and sector challenges.
The market appears to price in a durable premium for ELF, suggesting that investors expect solid performance despite the company's fragile earnings quality. The expectations gap is minimal, indicating that the market has already factored in some level of risk and uncertainty.
Management is on track with priorities to sustain net sales growth and improve profitability, as evidenced by recent increases in sales and adjusted earnings. However, the near-term risk remains elevated due to potential volatility in earnings surprises.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance without cuts, as well as external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector leaders. Any significant shifts in these areas could impact ELF's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company reported a strong earnings beat. This indicates solid sales growth. The company also launched a board leadership course at UC Berkeley. This move may improve governance and attract investor interest. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue to grow market presence across brands, categories, and geographies.
Breaks if: EBITDA growth falls below 10% YoY next year
Breaks if: revenue falls below $1.63B in FY27
Continue to grow market presence across brands, categories, and geographies.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ELF's performance will depend on its execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.