e.l.f. Beauty (ELF)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$113.63+1.91%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ELF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ELF — CFO transition
Dated 2026-02-13
Class I director — Matthew Farrell: Appointment of Matthew Farrell to the Board as a Class I director.
Why it matters: rhode beat its earnout targets in Q1. More strong results would show the brand is still adding sales.
Supportive ifQ2 results again show rhode revenue above the earnout targets in its merger agreement.
Worry ifQ2 results show rhode revenue at or below the earnout targets. Or the company reports a lower earnout value because results were weaker.
Why it matters: ELF's marketing and other costs rose as it grew. Faster cost growth could weigh on earnings.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted SG&A grows faster than net sales year over year, and its share of sales rises above Q1's 54%.
Less concerning ifQ2 adjusted SG&A grows more slowly than net sales, and its share of sales falls below Q1's 54%.
Why it matters: Q1 adjusted EBITDA grew 93%, and ELF raised its full-year range. Q2 results test whether earnings growth keeps pace.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is at least 25% of net sales, and ELF keeps its fiscal 2027 range of $401 million–$407 million.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is below 20% of net sales. Or ELF cuts its fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA range below $401 million.
Why it matters: Q1 gross margin rose to 83%, helped by tariff refunds. A lower margin would show that this boost may fade.
Worry ifQ2 gross margin falls below 75%, or ELF reports that tariff refunds or lower tariff rates no longer lift margin.
Less concerning ifQ2 gross margin stays at or above 80%, with pricing or lower tariff costs still lifting it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$159 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $539 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,809 loss on $10,000 · 58.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: ELF raised its fiscal 2027 sales growth range to 18%–20%. Q2 results test whether recent growth can continue.
Supportive ifOn November 4, Q2 net sales grow at least 18% year over year, in line with the low end of the updated fiscal 2027 outlook.
Worry ifQ2 net sales grow less than 18% year over year, or the company cuts its 18%–20% fiscal 2027 sales outlook.