e.l.f. Beauty (ELF)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$109.67+2.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ELF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ELF — CFO transition
Dated 2026-02-13
Class I director — Matthew Farrell: Appointment of Matthew Farrell to the Board as a Class I director.
Why it matters: Sustained market share gains would confirm the company's growth strategy is effective. This is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifMarket share gains for e.l.f. Cosmetics exceed 130 basis points in Q2.
Worry ifMarket share gains are flat or decline in Q2.
Why it matters: A lower margin may show rising costs. This can hurt profits even if sales grow.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 20% for Q2.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was above 22% for Q2.
Why it matters: Strong sales in rhode show good brand growth. This helps overall growth.
Supportive ifManagement reports rhode brand sales growth exceeding 30% year over year.
Worry ifManagement reports rhode brand sales growth below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: This shows that profits are not getting better as expected. Investors care about profit growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2027 is at $379 million or more.
Less concerning ifEBITDA is less than $379 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$253 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $593 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,620 loss on $10,000 · 66.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong adjusted EBITDA growth shows better profits. It also means good cost management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth exceeds 80% year over year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth falls below 60% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows that the company is making more money.
Supportive ifOperating income increases year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifOperating income growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Innovation can make products more appealing and help gain market share.
Watch forNew product launches show clear differences and boost sales.
Also watch forNew products fail to gain traction or show no sales impact.
Why it matters: A better EBITDA margin means the company is making more money and managing costs well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 20% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays below 20% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is stable or declining, it shows market expansion is hard.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth stabilizes or grows year over year above 5%.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth declines year over year below 5%.
Why it matters: Changes in consumer spending can impact sales and growth potential.
Watch forRetail sales report shows an increase in consumer spending above 3%.
Also watch forRetail sales report shows a decline in consumer spending below 0%.
Why it matters: Continued market share gains would affirm e.l.f.'s competitive strength and growth strategy.
Supportive ifMarket share gains reported above 130 basis points for Q3.
Worry ifMarket share gains reported below 130 basis points for Q3.
Why it matters: This could show inefficiencies. It may hurt overall profit and raise investor concerns.
Worry ifSG&A expenses reported to increase faster than 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses reported to increase at or below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows strong demand. It also shows good growth plans. Management believes in future performance.
Supportive ifManagement says fiscal 2027 net sales will grow by 18% or more.
Worry ifManagement cuts fiscal 2027 net sales growth to below 18%.
Why it matters: This would confirm e.l.f. Beauty's ability to sustain strong growth and meet raised guidance.
Supportive ifQ2 net sales growth exceeds 30% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 net sales growth falls below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: This shows that the company is making more money. It also proves management is working well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is over $150 million in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $150 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Meeting these thresholds would confirm the success of the rhode acquisition and brand expansion.
Supportive ifRhode's revenue meets or beats the earnout goals in the merger deal.
Worry ifRhode's revenue performance falls short of the earnout thresholds.
Why it matters: Stable SG&A shows good cost management. It also helps support growth plans.
Watch forSG&A expenses remain below $300 million in Q2.
Also watch forSG&A expenses exceed $300 million in Q2.