Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Elutia Inc (ELUT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.76-6.59%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ELUT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain gross margin above 80% | Elutia aims to keep gross margins above 80%. | Broken | gross margin falls below 75% in FY26 | Gross margin: 59.62% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=80% gross margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 202659.620931 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The system is designed to support target gross margins in excess of 80% at scale.” “A reconciliation of GAAP gross margin to adjusted gross margin is included in the accompanying financial tables.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not an established compounder: it is loss-making, has weak recent performance, and faces high risk. Its long-term thesis depends on advancing NXT-41x and improving revenue and margins; the current thesis state is watch, with the recent signal shifting from cautious to mixed.
The valuation evidence describes ELUT as cheap versus peers, but the model also shows a meaningful expectations gap and medium confidence. The priced-in tag is unjustified, while no fragility gates fired, so the snapshot does not support a simple conclusion that the low relative valuation fully reflects the business risks.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated, with a 59% estimated miss probability, and the August earnings miss adds concern. Over the multi-year view, NXT-41x regulatory and manufacturing work is on track, but revenue has declined and adjusted gross margin remains below the stated goal of over 80%.
The thesis depends on whether ELUT secures expected FDA clearance for NXT-41x in the first half of 2027 and can launch commercially in 2028, while funding that path. It also hinges on revenue recovery and continued margin improvement; a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could add pressure, while strength among sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ELUT is a fragile, execution-dependent long-term thesis: regulatory progress is encouraging, but weak results, elevated earnings risk, and unproven revenue growth keep the evidence mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Reduce operating losses toward break-even | Operating losses have improved from negative $9.9 million to negative $6.3 million. | Improving | operating loss worsens beyond -$7 million next year | Operating income: $-7.957M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss less negative than -$6.3 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 14, 2026-7,957,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize or grow revenue above $3.3 million | A primary condition in Elutia Inc's published investment case. The stated target is revenue >= $3.3 million. | Broken | revenue falls below $3 million next year | Revenue: $2.427M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue >= $3.3 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 14, 20262,427,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.52 → $-0.54 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.52 | $13,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.54 | $4,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.